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Will Gold break out it's trading range this year Finally?
price of Gold dropped last 2 months of year 2016... Which raises question about where Gold go this year? Will it finally breakout its trading range between $1050 and $1382? I feel that this year will be breakout year...

After Trump's 100 days in office, middle of April, We may find it out, I guess...
It might be an interesting year for gold but I'm not very excited at this time.
Not sure what will happen. But I think it may be another year before we start to see gold making significant moves up.
In the past gold is driven up by:

High inflation & high oil prices

Instability in the middle east

We have zero inflation, low oil prices and the middle east is in flames. So go figure!

I'm thinking gold HAS broken out. That spike at 1800 was just an overshoot and there's nothing else to come.
I am thinking of moving one of my bigger target highs in gold, say $3,700 to 2020 or 2021.  Then possibly $10,000 by 2029.

Gold/silver up for the year -- a better holding than stocks after this spring...  

Once the dollar peaks and declines again, I think gold will go up more -- someone on YouTube (or somewhere.  might have been on fiendbear.com) thinks that gold trades OPPOSITE of the US Dollar Index.  So, the dollar will hit a high soon, then that will allow gold to go up.  Gold will also act as a "fear trade" as stocks correct...

Gonna go with a YUGE range for the year.  So, I will look for highs between $14,25 to $1,575.  

Gold might actually rally MORE with stocks once their bear market ends in the first half of 2018 (at the earliest?).  The stock market has been in a 2-3 year primary degree bear market with B up nearly over -- sometime between mid-month and late March.  Basically a mini-jaws of death pattern... or your basic triangle pattern.

GOLD/SILVER began their Primary 3 up of Cycle 3 up a few trading sessions ago...

Fiat Metals will be another solid holding for the year.

I am also expecting isolated muni bond blowups AT LEAST for the next 2 years...

Sucker rally B top in REAL ESTATE coming soon -- if high end, speculative RE hasn't already peaked...

NANORECESSION WATCH for the next 2 or 3 years...

WAVE 5 DOWN for major portions of MAIN STREET with a low by 2020-2021.

The stock market correlates to the '73 January top in FORM/PATTERN/SENTIMENT and the '87 peak in Elliott Wave degree as well as the 1927 high.  

Should be a good year for SWING TRADERS who can follow/trade the intermediate trends...

BAD YEAR for buy and holders of the BLUES CHIPPED Silly Con Valley SWIFTY SHIFTY stocks such as Google, Apple, Facebook, etc.

da bear
Bear - you pull this crap straight out of your backside don't you?

By the way, when stocks drop, so does gold in most cases. This is because traders have to sell to close off naked stock positions.
(01-03-2017, 07:54 PM)andrew_o Wrote: Bear - you pull this crap straight out of your backside don't you?

By the way, when stocks drop, so does gold in most cases. This is because traders have to sell to close off naked stock positions.

true. But i think gold is working off a solid correction so gold will hold up ok.

I actually mean $1,425 for my initial upside target -- I have a comma in the wrong place.

Gold will mostly trade against Bonds and the US Dollar.  

The drawn-out correction in stocks will be based on a technical correction as well as multiple compression -- lots of companies will still be able to eke out profits although the correction-recession will give them a good excuse to shed salaries and under-performing brick and mortar stores.  Call it a mop-up operation of the Main Street Mega Bear Market that began in 2000.

da bear


I like Mike Norman's stuff on YouTube.  He follows fiscal flows and Fed numbers and follows a system called Modern Money Theory (MMT).

So he is more of a fundamental analyst type, actually a macro thinker, but his ideas match up with mine.

And, to be a contrarian, Harry Dent is bullish.  Robert Prechter is basically bullish.  Not sure what Marc Faber is -- probably confused.

I don't follow many other of the 'gurus.'

I used to follow Robert McHugh more but his wave counts are pretty bad... and he just has too many indicators.

... the one comment about gold trading opposite the dollar MAY HAVE BEEN part of the Curmudgeon letter/report posted at fiendbear.com recently.

Taking a MACRO VIEW, I think we get a NANO RECESSION at best between now and early 2018.  For much of the country, it could actually be a HARD DOWN recession.  

From there, I think we get AT LEAST a double dip recession -- possibly a triple dipper.  With the odds of this upcoming one being the worst of the 3 with my second best guess being the one in 2020-2021.

A 2021 low would match the 1921 low in terms of 100 years from that significant low.

From a political point of view the winner of the 1976 election came in just as the stock market topped in July... Then the next LOW came in 1980 ('76 a primary 1 high.  '80 a primary 2 low), so Jimmy Carter was a one termer... with rising inflation and lower economic growth...

Depending on the market -- and I think this lines up -- Trump could end up like Jimmy Carter -- personally liked by many, but awesomely bad all-around, although more inept than incompetent and crooked.

Actually, I think that I MYSELF DA BEAR could come in like Ronny Reagan and MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN -- AGAIN!!!!

da bear
A nice chart would be a test of the $1050 mark a time or two. Then a solid bounce upwards piercing the upper trend line. That should get it started. Of course, the $ price of Gold could fail that test and drop lower too. So, looks like we are stuck in the range for awhile, or until a catastrophe like a nuclear war starts up. Netanyahu is in control!

I predicted the price of Gold would be $1050 at 2016 year's end, so what do I know? Nothing. I'm dumber than a box of rocks, which is about 10 stones higher than Andrew and Oly.
She's gonna blow!
Quote:I actually mean $1,425 for my initial upside target

and where pray tell did that number come from?
(01-04-2017, 06:31 PM)andrew_o Wrote:
Quote:I actually mean $1,425 for my initial upside target

and where pray tell did that number come from?

Ole Faithful...

Also, my year end target for this year was $1,400.  That didn't work so I will keep at the $1,400 target (now $1,425) until I get it right.  

You see, ANYONE can make a round number prediction -- the key is to raise it up a bit more like $25 or $50, or what I like to do usually, $75.

For 2016 my LOW END target his was $1,375.  The HIGH for the year was $1,374 -- well, kitco.com doesn't say that was the high, but MAN I SAW IT!!!

Ok, so to put my DA BEAR'S LAWS OF PRICE PREDICTIONS together, my HIGH for the US Dollar Index will be between 115 and 125.

da bear

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