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Wuhan Coronavirus - anyone concerned??
#71
Dave, my guess is that the virus has been ongoing for some time in Wuhan and local government officials have been hiding it.

These bugs follow quite mathematically predicable growth curves and anything that is divergent is reporting error or delay.
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#72
(02-05-2020, 03:15 AM)andrew_o Wrote: Dave, my guess is that the virus has been ongoing for some time in Wuhan and local government officials have been hiding it.

I agree, BUT doesn't that BEG the question - considering Wuhan has ALWAYS had LOTS of international travelers,
WHY did it take SO LONG for a case to happen outside China?
You're not claiming foreign countries are hiding it too are you??????? 



These bugs follow quite mathematically predicable growth curves and anything that is divergent is reporting error or delay.

SO, still, How do you explain the above?
IF Wuhan hid it for a long time, at least ONE international traveler SHOULD have set a new fire SOME place else long ago! no?

IOW, Wuhan can under report, BUT they can not use magic to stop the virus from spreading fast, internationally, if it spreads locally in a city with LOTS of international travelers, - it has to follow that "growth curve" elsewhere too. right??

OR are you saying it's possible we could have outbreaks in foreign countries that are just not reported? OR are really delayed? I doubt that at this point in time - I mean, can you imagine finding out there was a big outbreak in New Zealand that started last week, but we delayed reporting it???.

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#73
So smart as Andrew is, he still doesn't even understand my question.
(not reporting it for a long in a city full of international travelers is NOT a possibility Andrew imo)
NOBODY I talk to in person even understands the question for some reason,


but I really do appreciate the other answers/guesses here on this thread
as to WHY this Wuhan virus spread so fast so long in CHINA, but only had dead ends EVERY where else it went (so far).


We have good guesses so far - even tho many are very unrealistic, they're at least good brainstorming starts.
recap so far:
1. Purposeful shotgun approach initial spreading
2. Local reservoir of infection needed to infect humans - like dogs etc (with human to human being difficult)
3. Geographic dependent lack of nutrition (like vit D & selenium)
7. Some magical time framing or reporting is wrong/off (per Andrew)
I'll add these possibilities - unlikely as they are:
4. Local customs including bad hygiene or sanitation or some other habit(s)
(as evidenced here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM)
5. Genetic component to the virus
8. combo of the above?
6. OTHER (please discuss, because I don't think we've hit the true answer yet)
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#74
(02-05-2020, 02:39 PM)DaveGillie Wrote: So smart as Andrew is, he still doesn't even understand my question.
(not reporting it for a long in a city full of international travelers is NOT a possibility Andrew imo)
NOBODY I talk to in person even understands the question for some reason,


but I really do appreciate the other answers/guesses here on this thread
as to WHY this Wuhan virus spread so fast so long in CHINA, but only had dead ends EVERY where else it went (so far).


We have good guesses so far - even tho many are very unrealistic, they're at least good brainstorming starts.
recap so far:
1. Purposeful shotgun approach initial spreading
2. Local reservoir of infection needed to infect humans - like dogs etc (with human to human being difficult)
3. Geographic dependent lack of nutrition (like vit D & selenium)
7. Some magical time framing or reporting is wrong/off (per Andrew)
I'll add these possibilities - unlikely as they are:
4. Local customs including bad hygiene or sanitation or some other habit(s)
(as evidenced here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lk5XkhUKMDM)
5. Genetic component to the virus
8. combo of the above?
6. OTHER (please discuss, because I don't think we've hit the true answer yet)

6. vitamin D and selenium deficiencies common in China

A couple of studies linked the spread of SARS to these deficiencies back when it was the preferred virus dooms day topic. It tended to spread much faster in the winter when these deficiencies increased. I think I read individual deficiencies correlated with the death rate of nCoV, but wasn't able to find where I read it.
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#75
This is just a very "out there" thought.  I recently bought some antibacterial washing up liquid (I think Americans call it dish soap?) and looked at the ingredients list to find out what the antibacterial agents were, and they are lactic acid and glycolic acid.  I can't find a lot about these yet, but this article says that lactic acid is antibacterial and kills viruses.  I am not sure there, as most things that kill bacteria have no effect on viruses.  I have never bought antibacterial washing up liquid before, but decided to try it and err on the safe side with an unknown bug going around, and keeping bacteria down a bit would help prevent (maybe not much) any preventable secondary bacterial infections which seem to be a serious issue with viral pneumonia.  Lactic acid and glycolic acid seem fairly natural disinfectants, and I was never happy about ingesting chemicals like triclosan, which is why I never tried it before.

https://www.corbion.com/media/434618/cor...ns_eng.pdf

"Conclusions: Lactic Acid is a safe, biobased and biodegradable option for antimicrobial products and formulations, with proven broad range efficacy against bacteria and viruses"

In China you can't buy cheese or chocolate, because most Chinese and Asian people are lactose intolerant.

Milk is made for baby creatures and very likely contains things that prevent infections.

Maybe there is some sort of connection, or not...

Edit: I just looked at the ingredient list on an antibacterial hand wash that I have, and one of its ingredients is lactic acid too. I haven't yet worked out what all the other ingredients do, and this may be the only antibacterial ingredient in it. If it also kills viruses as the article says, that is good but no guarantee it will kill the current Wuhan coronavirus. There was a recent fuss over Dettol bottles saying they kill Coronaviruses, but then Dettol announced that it won't work against the current Wuhan coronavirus.
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#76
Tis a conundrum Dave. The virus is infecting at least tens thousands in China and mutating, but not doing that much elsewhere except maybe places like Thailand. Steve Bannon does an hour long war room show on this topic daily and the consensus is that it's very serious, but they don't talk about the rate of spread overseas much although they did mention a case in Korea where the virus mutated FOUR times in ONE family. Haven't heard about that anywhere else.
This will have serious consequences for the world economy. Many factories in China that make parts and products for the rest of the world in China are shut down. I think there is a very unwarranted complacancy in the West about this economically.

I can not find anything about the virus mutating in Korea anywhere else, and a recording of the most recent show where it was mentioned is not available yet.  Could have heard wrong, but I don't think so.
Monty Python: “There are a great many people in the country today, who through no fault of their own, are sane.”
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#77
(02-05-2020, 03:51 PM)silverfish Wrote: This is just a very "out there" thought.  
..............
...............
because most Chinese and Asian people are lactose intolerant.
................
...................

.
sounds like a viable guess, thanks.
.
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#78
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article...4-589.html

This article says the real coronavirus numbers were leaked. Much higher.
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#79
OK one more day
Feb 6th, 2020 and STILL it rages in China with just sparks that can't catch fire ANY where else.




OTOH, for anecdote,
possibility #9

someone said if things look too weird the numbers could just be late or not reported.
SO I noticed this morning when my wife said "I don't know why they had school today, 70 kids are out sick",
we have a SMALL elementary school, that is more than 10%.
Monday when I was at work, 100% of our 9 person second shift called in sick
CDC map says 48 States have "high level of Flu".

Perhaps these are not just "the flu"? but the WuhanCrown?

I know that's not true, but brainstorming IS for crazy ideas!
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#80
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/...7b48e9ecf6


https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/...7b48e9ecf6

wish I could show this interactive map as an image instead of a link, is it possible?


at least there are more "recovered" than "dead" now! it was the other way around till recently!
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