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Da July Brief Rant: June Edition
#1
Da July Brief Rant
June Edition
by da bear





Metals and Bitcoin madness.  Ride the waves but know when to get off, or at least don't get too greedy.

Long-term gold has a MEGA make or break level just above $1,500 to determine whether the next 500 bucks are UP -- or DOWN.

In the bearish case: gold's rally but ultimate failure around $1,500 would be BEARISH meaning the move from $1,050 until now is CORRECTIVE and probably a Wave B up.  That would lead to new lows for this cycle.

BULLISH: still corrective maybe (can't be ruled out) but leading to a B wave top to slightly new highs.  Somewhere just north of $2,000.

I think gold bugs take some profits, take a bit of that parabolic spike away and then take one more crack at $1,500 to PERHAPS complete a bunch of A-B-C moves.

Bitcoin: tough to trade -- I basically missed ALL of the move.  Although blockchain stocks didn't do well with Riot down down down although doing better the past few days.  

No count is down for the count in Bitcoin although I would argue that Wave 1 of Wave V up is near finished.  

I might post some charts a bit later maybe next week... although maybe I will post them on DA SUMMER REPORT.

So, watch the tape BUT TAKE SOME PROFITS in Bitcoin and Gold.  

Stocks: stuck in a corrective pattern since January 2018.  Might not end for awhile.  A B TOP could come in the first part of 2021.  that would be a B wave HIGH.

stocks also in an a-b-c move up.  after the 4th of July then I think we could start a rally to test DJIA 27,500.  

Real Estate: Sluggish????? that is what the mainstreamers in the media are saying.

who knows....

to late to chase DA BULL.  

Might even be a MEGA B TOP in REAL ESTATE.  If DA HIGH was in 2006 (or 2005 for FLOOR-AAAAHHH-DUHHH) then 13 years after that is TODAY.  or, maybe two weeks ago.

So neutral for the next few days (to up then down a bit for the next few trading sessions) for stocks.  We might look at turn dates soon to tweak some counts and look at short-term forecasts.  Then let's see if the parabolic back is broken in BOTH gold and Bitcoin.  If so, we could see some quick pull backs and swift profit taking.  So, basically a SELL on those 2.  Probably not a coincidence that BOTH Gold and Bitcoin rallied TOGETHER.  probably pointing towards economic weakness or at least stock market weakness down the road.  So, SELL Gold.  SELL Bitcoin.  BUY MOR CASH.  DOUBLE SECRET MEH on STAWKS.

Da Summer of CASH rolls on.









da bear


P.S.  The wave counts and investor sentiment SHOULD impact the election.  A B high top in January 2021 would be similar to the B wave high in stocks in January 1973 after Nixon's landslide win for reelection.  Possibly a bad omen for TEAM BLEW.
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#2
There is a chance that Bitcoin is in a Wave 4 down so maybe A down is over, which should lead to a new B soon.

C low would go lower, then a final Wave 5 UP to new new new highs.

So, a few (couple?) of options are on the table!


That A-B-C count would show that the inside Wave 3 basically started in April and resolved with v of 3 up into the 13,888ish high.

[Image: bitstampUSD#rg360zig6-hourztgOzm1g10zm2g25zl]



if that doesn't show up here is a link to the Bitcoin chart:  https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstam...10zm2g25zl







da bear


P.S.  Gold is an interesting spot here, too.  The long-term area to look at is $1,500ish.  What happens there will point to the next $500 (or more) move in gold.

P.P.S.  a bit of a bounce here in stocks?
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#3
(06-27-2019, 06:14 PM)da bear Wrote: There is a chance that Bitcoin is in a Wave 4 down so maybe A down is over, which should lead to a new B soon.

C low would go lower, then a final Wave 5 UP to new new new highs.



if that doesn't show up here is a link to the Bitcoin chart:  https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstam...10zm2g25zl

Is this your chart ?

[Image: chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&Submit...0&l=1&p=0&]
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#4
(06-28-2019, 02:47 AM)aqua Wrote:
(06-27-2019, 06:14 PM)da bear Wrote: There is a chance that Bitcoin is in a Wave 4 down so maybe A down is over, which should lead to a new B soon.

C low would go lower, then a final Wave 5 UP to new new new highs.



if that doesn't show up here is a link to the Bitcoin chart:  https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstam...10zm2g25zl

Is this your chart ?

[Image: chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&Submit...0&l=1&p=0&]

Yeah that's it!

Not sure why I didn't attach the link right so it could open up.  

Looks like a bunch of options, although an a-b-c move would work.  

A bounce here would go into the 14,500 to 15,000 level then another decline (wave C) to below 10,000.

For this count Bitcoin would have to make new highs probably as early as tomorrow/early next week.  

Definitely a traders market!



da bear
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#5
Not being a nimble trader like yourself, I wouldn't touch Bitcoin with a 10 foot pole.
Reply
#6
Another option: Bitcoin is extending.  1 and 2 are done and 3 up is underway.  After 3, 4, and 5 complete with Bitcoin hitting a new new high that should put the finishing touches on Cycle I up.

Watch Da Tape!!  

GBTC is the stock ticker for the Bitcoin trust.  It's probably a "mad money" side bet but you still might wanna put on a loose stop....




da bear
Reply
#7
(06-26-2019, 04:25 PM)da bear Wrote: Da July Brief Rant
June Edition
by da bear





Metals and Bitcoin madness.  Ride the waves but know when to get off, or at least don't get too greedy.

Long-term gold has a MEGA make or break level just above $1,500 to determine whether the next 500 bucks are UP -- or DOWN.

In the bearish case: gold's rally but ultimate failure around $1,500 would be BEARISH meaning the move from $1,050 until now is CORRECTIVE and probably a Wave B up.  That would lead to new lows for this cycle.

BULLISH: still corrective maybe (can't be ruled out) but leading to a B wave top to slightly new highs.  Somewhere just north of $2,000.

I think gold bugs take some profits, take a bit of that parabolic spike away and then take one more crack at $1,500 to PERHAPS complete a bunch of A-B-C moves.


Da Summer of CASH rolls on.


Forbes is bullish on gold.

That makes me think it is topping ? ?

Exclamation

https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelcann...713f3d739e


"As the first-half of 2019 draws to a close, investors have much to cheer about. A lot of money has been made across many asset classes.

If you're considering tweaking your strategy for the second-half of the year, I have four words for you: Buy gold, sell bonds...."


[Image: Crypto-Bear-Market.png]
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#8
Looks like gold has gone below $1400.

Here's hoping it goes down $500.

Silver: $15.14 [Image: down.gif] -0.17 

Gold: $1384.00 [Image: down.gif] -25.90


http://www.coinflation.com/
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#9
Looks like a potential (short term) rising wedge pattern in the DJIA.  So watch the tape.  Stocks could weaken sooner rather than later...  could see highs for the year by the end of the summer.  Bigger B top might be postponed until next year.  



da bear
Reply
#10
(07-12-2019, 07:04 PM)da bear Wrote: Looks like a potential (short term) rising wedge pattern in the DJIA.  So watch the tape.  Stocks could weaken sooner rather than later...  could see highs for the year by the end of the summer.  Bigger B top might be postponed until next year.  



da bear

Dow 30,000 ? ?

I forget who predicted that.......
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