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The suburbs will die as cars become a rare luxury
#1
Car ownership, for a long time, has symbolized freedom and independence. But in the future, it may be akin to owning a horse today — a rare luxury.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-aut...teid=nwhpf

As the median American real income continues to decline, cars are becoming a luxury that few can afford.
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#2
Nope.

EVs will become ubiquitous

They may not be owned by the individual but they will be at your call.
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#3
Automobiles go away???  Bullshittae.  Complete liberal mental masturbation.

The rolling stock may get older, perhaps much older.  Perhaps people will be more likely to drive without insurance, that's already happening.  But go away???  Look at Cuba, look at Uruguay.  Vehicles in service from the 1920s to 1950s are very common down there.  And with $2 gasoline, the American people will drive more, not less.

Here in the patch, older Buicks and Oldsmobiles are very very common.  My immediate family (three persons) has a 2000 Buick Century, a 2005 Buick Century, a 2008 Nissan Versa and a 2016 Mercedes Benz.  Never thought that a seventeen year old automobile would be so damn important.  Around here, there is a fierce demand for serviceable mid-range vehicles from middle class estate sales.

oly

Everybody in the Patch is really waiting for the anti-gravity flying motorcycles anyhoots.
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#4
[Image: f0zNjlD.png]How many months are you willing to stretch out your auto loan payments? For many Americans, the answer is getting longer and longer. Drivers are now spreading car loan payments over an average span of 69.3 months, up 6.8 percent from five years ago, an analysis from Edmunds shows. "It's financially risky, leaving borrowers exposed to being upside down on their vehicles for a large chunk of their loans," said analyst Jessica Caldwell,

Quote:Of course cars are unaffordable. I worked for the world's second biggest car company for twenty years I struggled to afford one when I was in my 20's, even with a fucking 25% discount! So how Joe Public are expected to pull $30k out of their arse every three fucking years is a mystery [Image: shrug.gif] Perhaps EVERYONE except people in the auto industry are paid mega fucking money??
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#5
So, DR, how many blocks do you have to walk now to catch the bus???

Does the bus driver ever drive past you at the bus stop, just for laughs???

These posts must all come back to you, somehow.

oly
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#6
(07-06-2017, 06:03 PM)oly2059 Wrote: So, DR, how many blocks do you have to walk now to catch the bus???

Does the bus driver ever drive past you at the bus stop, just for laughs???

These posts must all come back to you, somehow.

oly

Hell, Oly, I know there are buses and trains here out in the suburbs, but I couldn't walk to a train, and I'll be damned if I know where the bus stops are.

Luckily, I'm within walking distance of a shopping mall with a grocery store, although I have to cross a 6 lane highway to get to a drug store.

My neighborhood has a very low "walkability index" according to Zillow.
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#7
(07-06-2017, 06:17 PM)ModestProposals Wrote:
(07-06-2017, 06:03 PM)oly2059 Wrote: So, DR, how many blocks do you have to walk now to catch the bus???

Does the bus driver ever drive past you at the bus stop, just for laughs???

These posts must all come back to you, somehow.

oly

Hell, Oly, I know there are buses and trains here out in the suburbs, but I couldn't walk to a train, and I'll be damned if I know where the bus stops are.

Luckily, I'm within walking distance of a shopping mall with a grocery store, although I have to cross a 6 lane highway to get to a drug store.

My neighborhood has a very low "walkability index" according to Zillow.

Well, there is some quick punishment for me.  I think the 2000 Buick died today, MOL.  It had been very marginal but important.

Mea culpa, mea culpa.

oly
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#8
Unlikely.  Because of American land use patterns, much of the US housing stock is in places where car ownership will never be a "luxury".  Barring radical changes to how we permit land to be used (allowing conversion of units in townhouse developments into stores and other commercial applications, conversion of struggling malls and strip centers into housing), having motorized transportation is always going to be a top priority.  Even if we were willing to spend massive sums on adding public transportation to the suburbs, everything is simply too low density and poorly laid-out to make transit viable in most of it.

If median incomes continue to decline, they will simply keep the existing rolling stock longer, as oly points out.  One obstacle to that is computerization--after about 2000, the number of un-repairable electronic components in cars started to take off.  For cars after that date, when the supply of a critical electronic component runs out and if aftermarket suppliers are prevented from producing knockoffs, the cars will be "totaled" when the component dies.  But some electronic components are turning out to be quite durable in normal use.  And there's still a good supply of pre-2000 vehicles around, in the US and worldwide.  Federal law now permits import of cars over 25 years of age, without regard to whether it meets US standards for collision, emissions, etc.  So soon Americans will be able to buy some of those 1990s European diesels that get 50+ MPG even though they were far too polluting to sell here new.

There are other solutions, too:
-many countries in Asia, where populations are/have been too poor for cars, are awash in small motorbikes.  Americans will not gladly trade away their cars, but they'll still ride small motorcycles before they'll walk across the suburbs.
-A company called Elio is developing a microcar, to be made at a former GM plant in Shreveport, LA.  MSRP is $7,450 and they claim 84 MPG--even poor Americans can probably finance that.  They're taking reservations now:
https://www.eliomotors.com/
Guns don't kill people, the government does.
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#9
In 1990, US cities had roughly 9.5 million people living in poverty — about 1 million more than the number of people living in poverty in the suburbs at the time.

Nearly three decades later, that ratio has taken a surprising turn: 2014 data show that cities had roughly 13 million poor people, while the suburban poor totaled nearly 17 million.

That's according to Scott Allard, a professor at the University of Washington and author of "Places in Need: The Changing Geography of Poverty," a new book that exposes and explains the hidden poverty in American suburbs. It debunks the myth that the suburbs are an idyllic, middle-class paradise immune to drug abuse and unemployment. The reality today is far bleaker, he contends.

"Our discourse is so focused on urban poverty, even though poverty trends have changed dramatically," Allard told Business Insider.

Poverty has been a creeping presence in the suburbs for the last few decades. As in cities, the disproportionate growth of low-wage jobs and decline of service-sector jobs has led to larger concentrations of people living at or below the poverty line.

The recession of 2008 accelerated much of this decline, which began in the early 2000s, Allard's research has found. Even when the nation began its climb to economic recovery in the 2010s, the suburbs continued to sink into poverty. More jobs sprang up, but not the kinds that helped people live secure, meaningful lives.

From Allard's perspective, the future is grim. As more people move into cities, particularly younger generations in search of job opportunities, the suburbs they leave behind will remain vulnerable to economic decline.

"Given the historic heights of poverty in urban and suburban America in recent years," Allard wrote, "it seems quite possible that the next economic downturn will push the poverty in cities and suburbs beyond anything in our recent experience."

http://www.businessinsider.com/hidden-po...rbs-2017-7

I see more and more people walking on the side of the roads nowadays.
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#10
I too see more people walking (or riding non-sport bicycles) who clearly have some specific purpose or goal in mind. Like going to work or to a store or some such.

But, quite often my gut reaction is "hey fella, you obviously don't belong here (in this nice a neighborhood)".

Sometimes I think they are casing better neighborhoods for some future larceny or misadventure.

oly
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