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The suburbs will die as cars become a rare luxury
#31
(07-15-2017, 10:11 PM)brunt Wrote:
(07-15-2017, 07:25 AM)andrew_o Wrote:
(07-15-2017, 02:26 AM)tdogg Wrote: Taxis require a driver. The future will have driverless cars.

There is a lot of hype about driverless cars but I think it will take longer and be a lot harder than the media claim

There are significant legal and cost hurdles to be overcome first

My pick is that we'll see a gradual increase in 'driver assistance' software over the next decade, mainly on high end models.

(The people hyping driverless cars today were hyping Segways 15 years ago)

Watch the trucking industry. Truck drivers are very expensive, and it will pay companies big bucks to replace long haul drivers. If there is a significant move, I expect it there first.
Yes - expect this to happen first elsewhere though.

US legal issues will hold them back but the Chinese will deploy them straight off and anyone that disagrees get locked up.

(07-15-2017, 12:41 PM)tdogg Wrote: 15 years ago most people did not have cell phones and look at it now. 15 years is a long time in tech. There are driverless cars today in Pittsburgh, Ann arbor, and a few spots in California and they have logged 100s of thousand of miles. (I have personally driven next to driverless vehicle in Pittsburgh). 

Whether it is 10 years or 50 years, cars will be driving themselves. With advanced Uber like technology where every passenger , every destination and every vehicle location is known in advance,  the car fleet will optimize and know when to pool passengers, when to swarm, etc. Honestly, Uber is currently pretty good. 
"Tech" isn't a thing. It's a bunch of things.
It's all very well to make pretty software whose failure is of little consequence in the real world but as soon as you say - this 2 ton vehicle will run off the road and kill people, it has to be taken a whole lot more seriously.
An easier application than driving a car is flying a plane (because its environment is less complex) but once again we only see 'driver assist' to varying degrees.
It's not that we can't do it, the issue is that someone's risk averse legal team has to sign off on it.
Also we've got to get the cost down to the point where it's a saleable proposition.
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#32
Yup, tech moves fast...all of it.

We already have the tech to do self driving cars, it is mostly about social adoption and organizational inertia. I have actuary friends in auto insurance and they say that within 10 years they know 50% of the auto insurance market is going to evaporate. By 15-20 years, totally gone.

There are a lot of societal organization around autos.....As brunt pointed out drivers. Self-driving vehicles will first pop up in ride sharing Uber fleets and trucking - think JB Hunt, UPS, FedEx, Amazon will be an early adopter around this stuff for groceries, books, etc. There will certainly be a transition, whether it is closer to 10 years or 50 is anyone's guess. I am thinking we will see trucking applications appear in 5-10 years....10-15 for the society at large. Who knows...maybe longer. Will self-driving cars co-exist with human drivers, or will they have separate lanes?

Disruption: Cops writing tickets....that will go away. Long-term parking like at airports, gone. Auto insurance. Body shops that work on collision repair? Will self-driving cars be more accurate, less error prone? Could hurt the auto-body industry. How about the suburbs, do they become the new slums...How will self-driving cars affect the suburbs?

Self-flying planes already a thing. Have been for over 20 years - mostly just in the air force, but some features have made its way to commercial, but very slow adoption there.
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#33
(07-17-2017, 05:45 AM)andrew_o Wrote: Also we've got to get the cost down to the point where it's a saleable proposition.

But keep in mind that people with money pay other people to drive them around.  And plenty more would pay people something to drive them around, just not as much as it costs to actually hire a professional driver.  When you think of what it would cost to hire a personal driver in a developed country, the annualized increase in cost of a car that drives itself (vs. one that doesn't) could actually be quite large and still be an attractive proposition.

Let's say I'd normally buy a car costing $20,000 to commute to work in.  Suddenly, I can buy a car that will drive me to work, but because the tech is new it costs as much as the car--the self-driving version of my car costs $40,000.  On one hand, that's a huge increase.  On the other, paying a few thousand a year to be driven around is really an inexpensive quality of life improvement for a middle-class person.  No more commuting stress, no more worries about being pulled over if you've had a drink...what's the value of all that?
Guns don't kill people, the government does.
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#34
(07-17-2017, 11:45 PM)Herring Wrote:
(07-17-2017, 05:45 AM)andrew_o Wrote: Also we've got to get the cost down to the point where it's a saleable proposition.

But keep in mind that people with money pay other people to drive them around.  And plenty more would pay people something to drive them around, just not as much as it costs to actually hire a professional driver.  When you think of what it would cost to hire a personal driver in a developed country, the annualized increase in cost of a car that drives itself (vs. one that doesn't) could actually be quite large and still be an attractive proposition.

Let's say I'd normally buy a car costing $20,000 to commute to work in.  Suddenly, I can buy a car that will drive me to work, but because the tech is new it costs as much as the car--the self-driving version of my car costs $40,000.  On one hand, that's a huge increase.  On the other, paying a few thousand a year to be driven around is really an inexpensive quality of life improvement for a middle-class person.  No more commuting stress, no more worries about being pulled over if you've had a drink...what's the value of all that?

A shit ton of value! 

The future looks promising - renewable energy, solar, nuclear, wind...self-driving cars, astounding medical advances. Now if we actually get there without killing ourselves first...
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#35
(07-21-2017, 02:41 AM)tdogg Wrote: The future looks promising - renewable energy, solar, nuclear, wind...self-driving cars, astounding medical advances. Now if we actually get there without killing ourselves first...

Big Grin Agreed!
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#36
(07-21-2017, 05:58 AM)andrew_o Wrote:
(07-21-2017, 02:41 AM)tdogg Wrote: The future looks promising - renewable energy, solar, nuclear, wind...self-driving cars, astounding medical advances. Now if we actually get there without killing ourselves first...

Big Grin Agreed!

Yes, the future looks promising!  Here is an invention that really will make an impact on people.

In an effort to bring light to communities lacking electricity, one pioneering project is utilizing an unexpected tool: old plastic bottles.

Liter of Light, a project of the Philippines-based nonprofit MyShelter Foundation, provides light to poor households around the world with limited or no access to electricity ― by collecting plastic bottles, filling them with water and bleach, and sticking them into roofs. The bleach-filled bottles then refract the light from outdoors into the house, lighting up much like a light bulb.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/plastic-bottl...23158.html

This invention comes just in time for most Americans as they rapidly plunge to 3rd world conditions.
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#37
Reading an article a few days ago, the whole EV thing might grind to a halt due to lack of cobalt.
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#38
(07-27-2017, 08:44 AM)andrew_o Wrote: Reading an article a few days ago, the whole EV thing might grind to a halt due to lack of cobalt.

Why do EVs need that much cobalt?
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#39
(07-27-2017, 09:54 AM)ModestProposals Wrote:
(07-27-2017, 08:44 AM)andrew_o Wrote: Reading an article a few days ago, the whole EV thing might grind to a halt due to lack of cobalt.

Why do EVs need that much cobalt?

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-cobalt...SKBN15T1VR
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#40
Brunt: Exactly
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