Tao Economics Forum

NK is conducting repeated tests of its ability to "cold launch" missiles from submarines, while its new, large sub is traveling further from home than ever before.  The Pentagon has confirmed NK's most recent missile launch could probably reach Chicago.  When it can launch that missile from a submerged sub with an endurance of a few weeks, and builds a few more such subs (so that one can be at sea at all times) it will have achieved a credible nuclear deterrent that the US is unlikely to challenge.  

Quote:Carried out on land at Sinpo Naval Shipyard, Sunday's ejection test is the third time this month -- and fourth this year -- that North Korea has conducted a trial of the missile component that is critical to developing submarine launch capabilities, according to the US defense official.

US officials also noted that a North Korean Sang-O submarine was operating in the Yellow Sea and the length of its deployment was notable. Two Romeo submarines were detected in the waters off Japan -- each one operating in the area for about a week.

US detects 'highly unusual' North Korean submarine activity
http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/31/politics/n...index.html

For reference, Britain's nuclear deterrent relies on 4 subs (which are nuclear-powered, so have much greater endurance than NK's, but the comparison is still relevant).

(08-01-2017, 09:53 PM)Herring Wrote: [ -> ]NK is conducting repeated tests of its ability to "cold launch" missiles from submarines, while its new, large sub is traveling further from home than ever before.  The Pentagon has confirmed NK's most recent missile launch could probably reach Chicago.  When it can launch that missile from a submerged sub with an endurance of a few weeks, and builds a few more such subs (so that one can be at sea at all times) it will have achieved a credible nuclear deterrent that the US is unlikely to challenge.  

Quote:Carried out on land at Sinpo Naval Shipyard, Sunday's ejection test is the third time this month -- and fourth this year -- that North Korea has conducted a trial of the missile component that is critical to developing submarine launch capabilities, according to the US defense official.

US officials also noted that a North Korean Sang-O submarine was operating in the Yellow Sea and the length of its deployment was notable. Two Romeo submarines were detected in the waters off Japan -- each one operating in the area for about a week.

US detects 'highly unusual' North Korean submarine activity
http://www.cnn.com/2017/07/31/politics/n...index.html

For reference, Britain's nuclear deterrent relies on 4 subs (which are nuclear-powered, so have much greater endurance than NK's, but the comparison is still relevant).

We must be listing our touch if one or two NK submarines couldn't simply suddenly go 'missing'.

The ocean is a big place.

oly

(08-02-2017, 01:29 AM)oly2059 Wrote: [ -> ]We must be listing our touch if one or two NK submarines couldn't simply suddenly go 'missing'.

The ocean is a big place.

oly

actually, quite a few HAVE.


but there is a limit to what one can get away with doing this..............

It also would become a bit more problematic if the sub had silos full of nuclear-tipped ICBMs, with who-knows-what kinds of controls on launching?
The nukes of US, Russia, Britain and France have elaborate controls built in to keep them from operating without authorization from the highest levels of their governments.  But they weren't present on first-generation weapons, they only came along decades later.  I'm not sure Pakistan's weapons have any analogous system.  And I highly doubt NK's will, either.  So it may be two men on board who have the trigger under their fingers.  What action might they take if they came under unprovoked attack from another sub?

I think the best option is for the U.S. to assassinate Kim Jung On. NK is completely centered structurally with him at the top and he is worshipped as some sort of god head. Take Kim out and the regime instantly goes into crisis. Kim knows this, and that's probably why he had his brother killed at the airport so he couldn't be a potential replacement. I know there are strictures against asassination but I still think it the best option.

There is also the option of opening up NK to as much information about the outside world as possible. That would make it harder for the regime to control it's people, but probably would not result in Kim's overthrow IMO.

(08-02-2017, 03:54 PM)Herring Wrote: [ -> ]It also would become a bit more problematic if the sub had silos full of nuclear-tipped ICBMs, with who-knows-what kinds of controls on launching?




 What action might they take if they came under unprovoked attack from another sub?

You do realize there ARE several nukes left accidently laying around ocean bottoms right now, right?
it's no big deal in most locations.

Also, so what if it goes off in a remote spot?? (helluva lot harder than you think, even without controls) just emphasize how stupid and careless the NKoreans are/were.


as to anyone responding to an "attack",
they SURELY will never have a clue that the accident is not an accident.

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(08-02-2017, 04:25 PM)doubletroublejim Wrote: [ -> ]I think the best option is for the U.S. to assassinate Kim Jung On.  NK is completely centered structurally with him at the top and he is worshipped as some sort of god head. Take Kim out and the regime instantly goes into crisis.  Kim knows this, and that's probably why he had his brother killed at the airport so he couldn't be a potential replacement.  I know there are strictures against asassination but I still think it the best option.

There is also the option of opening up NK to as much information about the outside world as possible. That would make it harder for the regime to control it's people, but probably would not result in Kim's overthrow IMO.

First off, You do realize NKorea has had SEVERAL DIFFERENT Leaders over the years, it does NOT change the craziness and WILL NOT if we assassinate the current leader of the day.
that's a dream fantasy that lots of people like to believe, usually the "what if Hitter" nice to think of but wrong.


and NO, there is no stricture against assassinations!!!!!!!! (except a little bit against strong Countries - which is one reason NKorea wants to be stong, duh)
we do IT A LOT - google definition of assassination and then think DRONES. duh
murder (an important person) in a surprise attack for political or religious reasons.

(08-02-2017, 07:34 PM)DaveGillie Wrote: [ -> ]Also, so what if it goes off in a remote spot?? (helluva lot harder than you think, even without controls) just emphasize how stupid and careless the NKoreans are/were.

My assumption was that the missiles were already programmed with their targets (US cities, military bases in Japan and SK, etc.) and could be launched quickly by the crew if they sensed that they were under attack.  Certainly, if the ship's hull is completely breached with no prior warning, then that's not an issue.  But if there is any significant period of time between when the crew believes they're being attacked and when the ship is completely incapacitated, there's a chance it could fire off some or all of its missiles.

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(08-02-2017, 04:25 PM)doubletroublejim Wrote: [ -> ]There is also the option of opening up NK to as much information about the outside world as possible. That would make it harder for the regime to control it's people, but probably would not result in Kim's overthrow IMO.

This would be my option.  Begin airdrops of large quantities of:
-radios and little battery-operated LCD TVs, capable of pulling in foreign programming
-little video players that take USB storage drives, plus USB drives full of foreign content in Korean
-easily-concealed guns and ammunition.  Small, light, mostly polymer. So you can shoot not just Joe Army Private and take his rifle, but alternatively a mid-level official
-explosive devices with timers and instructions  in Korean--your boss is a party-line following asshole?  Take him out with a bomb under his chair!
-drugs--encourage development of black markets
-other medicines likely to be in short supply in NK.  Boxes stamped "a gift of your friends, the people of USA"
-good-tasting, high-calorie foods --Snickers bars, granola bars, etc.

I'm sure there are other things I can't think of.  Dropped from high altitude by stealth aircraft, drones, or even small balloons released when winds are favorable.

Over time, if enough of these things were dropped, I think the government would have a hard time maintaining discipline.  In particular, it is a privilege to live in Pyongyang--the faithful are given apartments there, the disobedient already there are ejected.  One way to undermine the state would be for all of the comfort goods (food, medicines, video players) to be dropped only AWAY from Pyongyang.  That way those living there have no chance to find any of this manna from heaven, while the unprivileged get rewarded with it.  Those living in Pyongyang get only guns, bombs and meth.

(08-02-2017, 07:34 PM)DaveGillie Wrote: [ -> ]

(08-02-2017, 03:54 PM)Herring Wrote: [ -> ]It also would become a bit more problematic if the sub had silos full of nuclear-tipped ICBMs, with who-knows-what kinds of controls on launching?




 What action might they take if they came under unprovoked attack from another sub?

You do realize there ARE several nukes left accidently laying around ocean bottoms right now, right?
it's no big deal in most locations.

Also, so what if it goes off in a remote spot?? (helluva lot harder than you think, even without controls) just emphasize how stupid and careless the NKoreans are/were.


as to anyone responding to an "attack",
they SURELY will never have a clue that the 

No not several leaders. Just three and the last two hereditary.  Cut off the head, and the regime will go into crisis. Yes, they will find another leader, but it will take time to consolidate power. If they do, kill that one too. The regime relies on worshiping the Kims.

sev·er·al
ˈsev(ə)rəl/
determiner & pronoun
determiner: several; pronoun: several
1.
more than two but not many.

(08-02-2017, 09:59 PM)Herring Wrote: [ -> ]Over time, if enough of these things were dropped, I think the government would have a hard time maintaining discipline.  In particular, it is a privilege to live in Pyongyang--the faithful are given apartments there, the disobedient already there are ejected.  One way to undermine the state would be for all of the comfort goods (food, medicines, video players) to be dropped only AWAY from Pyongyang.  That way those living there have no chance to find any of this manna from heaven, while the unprivileged get rewarded with it.  Those living in Pyongyang get only guns, bombs and meth.

Meth is already free in NK like basic coffee is free in many businesses in America.

The NK leadership thinks meth is a great productivity tool.  That's why the NKs are all crazy; they are all meth heads by and large.