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DA FALL-ISH UPDATE
#1
DA FALL-ISH UPDATE




The weather is cooling off... the markets might be too.

Regarding stocks, recently there has been lots of sound/fury signifying nothing -- but that could change.

Stocks look ready to roll over.  Even if they aren't I think the bulls take a nano-break here -- TWO MORE WEEKS?

My TOP count for the DJIA is that stocks either peaked several weeks ago -- or even a bit before that....  If we are headed for an A-B-C drop where A is made up of a smaller a-b-c count then b up of A down is over and we await c down of A down -- with price targets around DJIA 32,000ish.

The OTHER scenario also yields a DJIA 32,000ish target...  Wave A down started a bit sooner in the summer and is unfurling in an a-b-c-d-e wedge (mini-jaws of death) pattern.  d up is in the books with wave e down of A down starting.  Sure, similar price target a few thousand points lower.

Once that ends (Thanksgiving-ish?) we get a rally, likely Wave B up made up of an inside five wave move aka i, ii, iii, iv, v.  Robert McHugh has a price target of 36,500 so maybe that will be the B top.

Following that, a fast/furious correction down towards the Spring 2020 lows.  Maybe even a bit lower.  That would end a large/intermediate A-B-C Elliott Wave correction.

Deflating stocks could take down cryptos -- or not.  At the very least it will lead to a worsening social mood.  

Gold could be a solid hedge early... then fade once Deep Money hedge funds sell off.

Upside resistance around $1,850.

Interesting perspective on gold shows that gold MAY have put in a B top this year around $2,000.

If so, gold FADES/CRASHES to $1,000 or a bit lower.  So... deflating stocks leads to deflation among broader investment vehicles.

Even so, you probably just wanna sell paper precious metals for DA REAL THINGS.  

Silver usually follows gold.  Lags, but in extremes.  

... real estate: is it softening?  Maybe.  we should know more buy spring/summer 2022.

John Galt types should do well in the 2022 mid-terms.

Midget Mengele is getting on everyone's nerves.  "Get Shot With Double Plus AIDS" ain't the best campaign slogan for Dr. Anthony FRAUDI.  

OF COURSE Memphis has interesting basketball teams just as the Apocalypse is knocking on our door.

Mid-major conferences are about to go the way of the ole rasslin' territories.  Some day, some body is gonna write a book on The Death of The Mid-Majors.

One of the questions now is... will Santa Q save Christmas?













da bear
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#2
Meanwhile in China:  Alibaba Has Lost $344 Billion in World's Biggest Wipeout
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#3
(10-27-2021, 05:00 PM)andrew_o Wrote: Meanwhile in China:  Alibaba Has Lost $344 Billion in World's Biggest Wipeout

.

Reminds me of the story of the Gambler

went to the Casino with $20

won a MILLION!!! next roll lost it all.


Came home and told his wife he lost $20
meanwhile, all his stock investor friends insist that he really lost a million dollars.




(( I have to keep telling all those who think they lost a million dollars in ENRON retirement this story))
(not long ago, Alibaba was worth ZERO)
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#4
What's that about history not repeating, but rhyming?

In China today I see shadows of two 20th century failures:

JAPAN was the wonder child of the 1960's. As a kid I was told they beat us in everything and would finish up ruling the world. Half-baked economists said they would be the world's largest economy by 2000. Never happened. Much of the Japanese miracle was fuelled by copying western designs, dodgy trade practices and a property bubble. It all ended in the 80's and Japan has been in stagnant and deflation ever since. They failed to breed and now face a demographic nightmare.

RUSSIA was a fierce opponent to western democracies, right up until the day it collapsed inward on itself due to being rotten at the core. Their attempt to rule a vast country from the centre through threats and intimidation proved fruitless. Few in the west saw it coming and academics were touting communism as a viable means of managing a country right up until it became a standing joke. Ironically some still are! They also failed to breed and certainly until recently their population growth was negative too.

So in China I see elements of both:

Japan's property bubble, IP theft and dodgy trade practices mixed with Russia's attempt to direct people's lives from a central committee and arbitrarily set targets regardless of their practicality and consequences. Their one child policy has had similar demographic consequences.

 
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