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Flatten or shift the curve?
#11
(03-26-2020, 09:18 PM)DaveGillie Wrote:
(03-26-2020, 07:27 PM)andrew_o Wrote: Discussions are being held about the consequences of lock-down.

There is a concern that if the isolation is too effective it won't flatten the curve it will simply shift it to the right, and thereby postpone the infections and rag out the economic impact.

So the authorities need some leakage from isolation to maintain a steady stream of infections.

.

to only SHIFT                 .rather than FLATTEN

you would need near perfect isolation
no way in HELL you will get anything near enough people complying like that!

We're in uncharted territory here: Nobody knows how much isolation is required to taper off the infection rate.

And no - you don't need perfect isolation, you just need enough isolation to get the transmission coefficient below 1 for it to fade out.

We have close to full isolation here. It's easier to do thanks to the country being an island with a very low population density: It's a bit like the mid-west on an island, only prettier with better weather and more mountains.

We found some tourists weren't playing the game so they were arrested, imprisoned and will be deported.

So we're watching the curve and it's progression. So far it's remained on a log curve as you'd expect but yesterday it started to deviate below the log line indicating the lock down is having an effect. We'll see.

[Image: 91419967_10158292194778343_7455862659473...e=5EA5EFA9]
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#12
Aqua can you give it a rest for like a day? You are going to end up cursing Trump on your death bed in a loony bin for god sakes.
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#13
I'll second that!

OK we get it - you're a rabid Democrat fan and hated losing in 2016. But get over it.
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#14

(03-29-2020, 06:56 PM)andrew_o Wrote: I'll second that!

OK we get it - you're a rabid Democrat fan and hated losing in 2016. But get over it.

You could be talking about gardening and somehow he could make it about how Trump effed him over.
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#15
Ha! So true.

It's an unhealthy delusion
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#16
(03-29-2020, 06:56 PM)andrew_o Wrote: I'll second that!

OK we get it - you're a rabid Democrat fan and hated losing in 2016. But get over it.

And the healthy response is - "OK, we screwed up and lost. This is what we did wrong, this is what we learned, and this is what we will do differently in future". But no, all we get is "Orange Man bad".
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#17
Ah, now we're talking. A way to regulate the "leakage" and keep the tyrant bureaucrats in control. This could go on for years if they can scare us with a new corona virus every flu season. Maybe even apply it to influenza which kills more people anyway.

The really scary part is it could work, even against a serious virus like Spanish Flu, to incrementally reduce population. The population control nuts, environmentalists and the like, will love it.

Harvard Researchers Propose "Intermittent" Lockdowns And "Widespread Surveillance" Of Americans To Avoid Critical-Care Capacity
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#18
(03-29-2020, 08:29 PM)StingingNettle Wrote:
(03-29-2020, 06:56 PM)andrew_o Wrote: I'll second that!

OK we get it - you're a rabid Democrat fan and hated losing in 2016. But get over it.

You could be talking about gardening and somehow he could make it about how Trump effed him over.

LOL.  Are my cartoons making the snowflakes melt ?

But I will try to quarantine Trump to the area reserved for politics.

(03-27-2020, 12:31 PM)DaveGillie Wrote: doesn't matter what Trump does,

open all or close all or anything in between.






aqua  has the exact same impression of it

"pure evil".

TDS at it's finest

 My impression of the Dear Leader is more  one of "total incompetence". 

But if the Cultists want to spin it differently, so be it.
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#19
Quote:LOL.  Are my cartoons making the snowflakes melt ?


No, I'm legit concerned about your mental health.
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#20
(03-30-2020, 04:53 PM)StingingNettle Wrote:
Quote:LOL.  Are my cartoons making the snowflakes melt ?


No, I'm legit concerned about your mental health.

Angel Angel   OK.  Coming from you, I will take that under advisement.
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