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DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT
#1
DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT


With the back ground narrative now being "IMPEACH TRUMP" aka MUH-PEACHMENT this looks like a head wind for bullish asset markets (aka stocks) as opposed to BEARISH/hedge asset markets like GOLD.

Gold sold off early today, and bounced back a bit.  I think gold ramps back up, and attacks $1,600ish.  Gold might still be in a BEAR MARKET CORRECTION since 2011 but even then, I think gold bounces back a bit as weak shorts cover and gold bugs dip back in again.  Although maybe a sucker high B top to new nominal highs just north of $2,000ish might be a year or two or 3 off....

Bitcoin: ok, wow, almost typed BitCON -- Freudian slip????  Might not be a hedge market, maybe more of an ANTI-CASH BULLISH bet (like stocks).  Hit 9,000 then backed off.  Could be a correction still.... Even IF that 3,000 low from a year or so ago won't get breached.  So... maybe  a small position in GBTC (Bitcoin tracking trust) and a TINY position in crypto stock bets but that might be about it -- although it looks like one of THE markets to keep an eye on.

Stocks have had a sluggish day so far.  Returns could be sideways at best thru the spring/summer.  

A noticeable reversal here could lead to an unraveling stock market fairly quickly.  Either way, I think the DJIA retests 24,000ish before it makes its ultimate run up to 40,000ish (or even higher).

Cash is probably king as caution reigns.

DJIA wave count that I prefer might be getting away from me soon: A up is over with A comprising a, a-b-c for b then, c up, with a of B down in the books, and a-b-c up for b up of b down in the books....  So, then you get c of B down to that 24,000ish level.  Before C up for the bigger B of a corrective triangle that I think began in January/February 2018.  

Too many over-lapping waves (in my opinion) over the past couple of years to be a REAL breakout.  

Breadth doesn't look so hot.  And, can BEYOND BURGERS or whatever the fuck REALLY lead a healthy, SUSTAINED break-out rally?  

Here's a pic of the DJIA in the last 4 years.  Looks like a hard count to figure out....  BREAKOUT up is possible but I like the triangle/wedge pattern count the most.  Basically a mini-Jaws of Death aka a mid-cycle technical correction inside a MEGA BULL MARKET that ENDS no later than 2029-2033.

[Image: big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=djia&uf=0&ty...mocktick=1]

Even if this count doesn't hold up, the closer ALTERNATIVE would take the DJIA to 20,000 to 21,000ish sooner rather than later (year or so after the election for DA LOW).

And, the way gold is positioned, I think gold is ready for a snap-back, dead cat, alternate count REBOUND RALLY that is IMMINENT.

THIS situation would be BEARISH for BULLISH BETS (namely stocks, and, to a lesser extent, Bitcoin).

Oh...

... one more thing...

I looked at coinflation.com the other day.  It SEEMS to me that it LOOKS LIKE they quit making nickels in 2014.  OR that the website has an error OR the nickels have a new composite.

If so....

Maybe 

like

"It's not a bank run -- it's a jail break".











da bear

Call your local ticket broker about Memphis Wrestling Federation season tickets!


P.S.  I think I like DA GOLD COUNT/scenario more than the others, but I will keep an eye on both.  A CONFIRMATION of a stock market reversal will lead to a WASH OUT going into the spring.  From there, probably a snap-back short covering rally for a Bigger B top around January 2021.
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Messages In This Thread
DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by da bear - 01-21-2020, 06:22 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by matlock - 01-21-2020, 07:46 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by oly2059 - 01-21-2020, 08:18 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by da bear - 01-21-2020, 10:37 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by da bear - 01-22-2020, 07:59 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by da bear - 01-23-2020, 06:26 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by oly2059 - 01-24-2020, 01:02 AM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by da bear - 01-24-2020, 07:48 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by matlock - 01-28-2020, 02:20 AM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by da bear - 01-28-2020, 06:14 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by andrew_o - 01-28-2020, 06:18 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by da bear - 02-04-2020, 07:45 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by DaveGillie - 02-04-2020, 10:43 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by da bear - 02-05-2020, 11:02 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by oly2059 - 02-06-2020, 04:14 AM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by da bear - 02-06-2020, 05:04 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by da bear - 02-07-2020, 10:57 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by da bear - 02-12-2020, 05:24 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by da bear - 02-13-2020, 05:44 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by andrew_o - 02-13-2020, 06:33 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by oly2059 - 02-13-2020, 06:48 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by da bear - 02-14-2020, 10:41 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by andrew_o - 02-15-2020, 03:10 AM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by DaveGillie - 02-15-2020, 02:49 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by andrew_o - 02-15-2020, 06:41 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by andrew_o - 02-15-2020, 11:06 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by DaveGillie - 02-15-2020, 11:30 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by andrew_o - 02-16-2020, 06:27 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by DaveGillie - 02-16-2020, 10:30 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by andrew_o - 02-18-2020, 07:52 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by da bear - 02-18-2020, 06:16 PM
RE: DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT - by da bear - 02-24-2020, 06:54 PM

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