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Da Golden CryptoStock Update
Da Golden CryptoStock Update

Real Estate is softening according to fundamentals, sentiment, and mainstream headlines. Not that that is the last word but it does matter.  Speculative Con-Doze built with Chinese dark money are gonna go DOWN.  So I would put a SELL rating on those kinds of places in NYC, Seattle, Downtown LA, and probably Miami as well as Seattle.  San Diego?  HOLD?  But, only if you got money to burn.

Secondary towns are solid: getaway places like Laughlin, Nevada, Perdido Key, Florida, Lake Tahoe, CA/NV, and some Eastern Seaboard towns.  Maybe Atlantic City....  

Otherwise, RE is a HOLD at best, probably a SELL most places.  It is gonna be a GRIND now.  

If I can find a great real estate chart then I will post it.  

Best guestimate: Real Estate put in an ORTHODOX TOP in 2005/2006.  A wave lows a few years after that and we are now in Wave B with the TOP of B probably already in and seeking confirmation soon.  

this is my favorite blog for all things real estate.  I have followed this thing for years and comment from time to time on it:

link:  http://housingbubble.blog/

Ok, so technical SELL signal.  Fundamentals: HOLD at best.  SELL probable.  CRASH WATCH ahead.  ALT CONDOS will be the new new new new thing.  That, or SELF-DRIVING APARTMENTS.

I would stay away from issuing a BUY SIGNAL on real estate until after the election.

Stocks: DJIA headed to 27,700.  Still in a correction since January 2018.  Inside a B down of an a-b-c up move.

Next solid turn date according to the Bradley Model Siderograph is August 8th.  That could be a short-term high in stocks.  Could effect gold, too.

I am putting off the bigger B top until after the election so something like January or March 2021.  That would also come 21 years after the INFAMOUS DOT COM TOP in 2000.

GOLD: gold was a bit oversold.  look for it to match or somewhat exceed the highs from last week.  Then another sell-off from there.  Following that: one last potential run at $1,500ish.

Depending on what happens around that level, I will update any gold chart I have.  Right now, the count can go either way -- both short-term and long-term.

If stocks peak over a year from now, then gold might or might not be effected.  If da wal-street sucker boom continues then that would point to Trump's more likely electoral success (although no Gemini has ever won re-election -- JFK and GHWB), which could mean gold weakens.  Maybe Gold trades with Real Estate for a bit....

Bitcoin: it is DA TRADE.  One way or the other.  Or, BOTH.  

MEGA sell-off but it was quick.  14,000 down to 9,600.  From the rally that started at 3,000 then a 4,400 insta-crash gave Bitcoin a 40% sell-off.  Hmmm... close to the 38.2% fibonnaci ratio.  So, Primary 1 might be in the books.  Sounds incredible but that could be the count.  Super Cycle I still in force.  With Cycle 5 in progress and Primary 1 up and 2 down in the books.  If so, Primary 3 up has already started.  DA TOP might not come until January-March 2021.

[Image: chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&Submit...0&l=0&p=0&]

That would be a crazy count but it would work.

Cycle 1 up into late 2013.  Cycle 3 high at the end of 2017.  So, 5 up is in force.  

[Image: chart.png?width=940&m=bitstampUSD&Submit...0&l=0&p=0&]

That lower trend line since mid-late Spring hasn't really been breached.

So... watch the tape.  Watch the chart.  Assume nothing. Question everything.

The Bitcoin tracking stock/trust goes by the ticker GBTC.

Happy Independence Day!

da bear

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