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D.R. Site predicts recession
#1
Smile  And it is only about 120-130 days out.

https://dailyreckoning.com/beware-the-ad...eld-curve/


Beware the “Adjusted” Yield Curve


"Yesterday we furrowed our brow against the latest inversion of the “yield curve.”

The 10-year Treasury yield has slipped beneath the 3-month Treasury yield — to its deepest point since the financial crisis, in fact.

Inverted yield curves precede recessions nearly as reliably as days precede nights, horses precede carts… lies precede elections.

The 10-year Treasury yield has dropped beneath the 3-month Treasury yield on six occasions spanning 50 years.

Recession was the invariable consequence — a perfect 1,000% batter’s average.

But an inverted yield curve is no immediate menace.

It may invert one year or more before uncaging its furies.

But today we revise our initial projections — as we account for the “adjusted” yield curve.

The “adjusted” yield curve indicates recession may be far closer to hand than we suggested yesterday.

When then might you expect the blow to land?

......A “Far More Immediate Menace”

Meantime, evidence reveals recession ensues 311 days — on average — after the 3-month/10-year yield curve inverts.

But if the adjusted curve inverted last November… we are presented with a far more immediate menace.

Here Wilson sharpens the business to a painful point, sharp as any thorn:

Quote:Economic risk is greater than most investors may think… The adjusted yield curve inverted last November and has remained in negative territory ever since, surpassing the minimum time required for a valid meaningful economic slowdown signal. It also suggests the “shot clock” started six months ago, putting us “in the zone” for a recession watch.

If recession commences 311 days after the curve inverts — on average — some 180 days have already lapsed.

And so the countdown calendar must be rolled forward.

Perhaps four–five months remain… until the fearful threshold is crossed.

If the present expansion can peg along until July, it will become the longest expansion on record.

But if the adjusted yield curve tells an accurate tale, celebration will be brief…"

Regards,
Brian Maher
Managing editor, The Daily Reckoning
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