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Stark warning on the economy

Quote:"We're at the end of what I'd say is the economic cycle at the moment. There's no question that when I look around the world and the things I'm now involved in internationally, you can start to see the pressure in the system," Key said. 

"I was in China a week ago, it's clear their economy is really starting to splutter a little bit. While the United States economy is doing well, they're running massive, massive deficits - 7 per cent of GDP. Europe's obviously much weaker than it was.

"So I think you are starting to see a slowdown in the economy and I think that, in part, reflects the business confidence numbers in New Zealand, and I think in part New Zealand businesses are looking at what the Government's doing and they're uncertain about that." 
Yes. Many areas around the globe also have real estate topping out.
(07-30-2018, 04:02 PM)StingingNettle Wrote: Yes.  Many areas around the globe also have real estate topping out.

Other than a Porsche 911 (guessing here), Real Estate is the only thing that can stop on a dime.  

It's gains slow as the top nears, then it just STOPS.  From there the downward takes over a bit later.

Richard Russell (RIP) posted this point in one of his free articles that he used to post on his Dow Theory Letters site.

A bit jarring how fast the Real Estate Talking Point is going around.

I think there will be massive panic next Spring.  

I would assume that the orthodox peak in real estate came as early as 2005 and as late as 2006/2007.  So, this would be a B wave sucker high.  We will get new new new highs a decade or so from here, but this downturn could last 3-5 years.  Maybe even a bit longer.

Many RE markets should go to NEW lows, breaching the 2008-2010 lows.

Real Estate was DA INVESTMENT for Boomers and those ole timers are topping out, too...

HEDGE: Cash. Gold.

ROLL THE DICE/TAKE YOUR CHANCES: stocks post-summer.  Bitcoin rally, then the next solid low.  

da bear

P.S.  I will probably post an August Report soon.  Covering stocks/gold/cryptos/real estate/politics/etc.  I think I also have a story line for the Report.  Suggestions welcomed!

da bear -- oh wait, I already signed off...
The key thing about property is interest rates: You've seen several rates rises in the last couple of years and that has a massive effect on a persons ability to support a housing loan.
You gotta keep buying those Trump War Bonds.

Yes, the ones everyone knows will never be paid off.

[Image: jdz180912c-850x593.jpg]

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