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Stark warning on the economy
#1
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politic...-as-leader

Quote:"We're at the end of what I'd say is the economic cycle at the moment. There's no question that when I look around the world and the things I'm now involved in internationally, you can start to see the pressure in the system," Key said. 

"I was in China a week ago, it's clear their economy is really starting to splutter a little bit. While the United States economy is doing well, they're running massive, massive deficits - 7 per cent of GDP. Europe's obviously much weaker than it was.

"So I think you are starting to see a slowdown in the economy and I think that, in part, reflects the business confidence numbers in New Zealand, and I think in part New Zealand businesses are looking at what the Government's doing and they're uncertain about that." 
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#2
Yes. Many areas around the globe also have real estate topping out.
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#3
(07-30-2018, 04:02 PM)StingingNettle Wrote: Yes.  Many areas around the globe also have real estate topping out.

Other than a Porsche 911 (guessing here), Real Estate is the only thing that can stop on a dime.  

It's gains slow as the top nears, then it just STOPS.  From there the downward takes over a bit later.

Richard Russell (RIP) posted this point in one of his free articles that he used to post on his Dow Theory Letters site.

A bit jarring how fast the Real Estate Talking Point is going around.

I think there will be massive panic next Spring.  

I would assume that the orthodox peak in real estate came as early as 2005 and as late as 2006/2007.  So, this would be a B wave sucker high.  We will get new new new highs a decade or so from here, but this downturn could last 3-5 years.  Maybe even a bit longer.

Many RE markets should go to NEW lows, breaching the 2008-2010 lows.

Real Estate was DA INVESTMENT for Boomers and those ole timers are topping out, too...

HEDGE: Cash. Gold.

ROLL THE DICE/TAKE YOUR CHANCES: stocks post-summer.  Bitcoin rally, then the next solid low.  










da bear


P.S.  I will probably post an August Report soon.  Covering stocks/gold/cryptos/real estate/politics/etc.  I think I also have a story line for the Report.  Suggestions welcomed!






da bear -- oh wait, I already signed off...
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#4
The key thing about property is interest rates: You've seen several rates rises in the last couple of years and that has a massive effect on a persons ability to support a housing loan.
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