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Elliotte Wave draws a Line in the Sand
#1
Looks like the EW folks have stuck their neck out here.

Maybe Andrew will want to buy more stawks ?

He might even be right to do so........contrarian opinion and all that jazz....

This has an EWI copyright, but appears on the ZH site open to all.


For Stocks, the Line in the Sand Has been Drawn
Here's what the Global Dow’s technical picture implies for the DJIA
By Editorial Staff
Thu, 28 Jun 2018 10:15:00 ET

https://www2.elliottwave.com/affiliates_...wn-aa.aspx


You may have heard pundits on financial television say something like, "I see support for the Dow at this price level," or "This stock should experience some resistance at that price level."

So, what do these analysts mean by support and resistance?

.......support means buying in sufficient volume to prevent any further downward movement in prices for an appreciable period. Resistance is just the opposite. It means selling in enough volume to satisfy all bids, thereby preventing prices from going any higher for a while.

On a chart, after a support line is meaningfully broken, prices tend to move more freely downward. The opposite applies when lines of resistance are broken.

When support and resistance have long held, or have been touched several times, the price moves after a breakthrough can be quite dramatic.

With that in mind, here's a chart and commentary from our June 22 U.S. Short Term Update (wave labels available to subscribers):


[Image: 1ECC22B2CF774A7CA9F5E3ACD68367FF.ashx]

The Global Dow comprises 150 global blue-chip stocks, including all 30 components of the DJIA. Unlike the DJIA, which is a price-weighted index, the Global Dow is equal-weighted so that price moves in large stocks hold no disproportionate sway over the index. The Global Dow peaked on January 29, the day after the DJIA, and traced out [an Elliott wave pattern downward] to February 9, along with the U.S. blue-chip stock indexes.

But notice how each successive rally thereafter has topped at a lower high despite the hefty representation of U.S. blue chips...

Heavy is an understatement, because:

"...the U.S. accounts for more than 42% of the total index's valuation."
Needless to say, if the Global Dow's support shelf gives way, it could have profound implications for U.S. stocks, as well..........

Copyright © Elliott Wave International. All rights reserved.



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#2
My model has been forecasting that this breakthrough will in fact happen. Note that the "Stocks" line in this chart is the world stock market, similar to the "Global Dow" but much broader by virtue of including virtually the entire world market of equities. Note too that this chart was last updated April 1, and the markets have pretty closely tracked its predictions since.

[Image: SyntheticSystemsD2018.25.png]
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#3
Their language is so vague and sphinx riddling. Are they saying the Dow will go up or down?

I think it could be about to go down a lot. But it could hover around just above the support for another month. Crash point late July?

Interesting looking at the Global Dow though, as I tend to only look at the Dow 30, and the other indexes sometimes show the patterns more clearly. It would be nice to be able to look at all the different current financial charts without having to search and google and often not find them.
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#4
(06-29-2018, 01:54 PM)aqua Wrote: Looks like the EW folks have stuck their neck out here.

Maybe Andrew will want to buy more stawks ?

He might even be right to do so........contrarian opinion and all that jazz....

This has an EWI copyright, but appears on the ZH site open to all.


For Stocks, the Line in the Sand Has been Drawn
Here's what the Global Dow’s technical picture implies for the DJIA
By Editorial Staff
Thu, 28 Jun 2018 10:15:00 ET

https://www2.elliottwave.com/affiliates_...wn-aa.aspx


You may have heard pundits on financial television say something like, "I see support for the Dow at this price level," or "This stock should experience some resistance at that price level."

So, what do these analysts mean by support and resistance?

.......support means buying in sufficient volume to prevent any further downward movement in prices for an appreciable period. Resistance is just the opposite. It means selling in enough volume to satisfy all bids, thereby preventing prices from going any higher for a while.

On a chart, after a support line is meaningfully broken, prices tend to move more freely downward. The opposite applies when lines of resistance are broken.

When support and resistance have long held, or have been touched several times, the price moves after a breakthrough can be quite dramatic.

With that in mind, here's a chart and commentary from our June 22 U.S. Short Term Update (wave labels available to subscribers):


[Image: 1ECC22B2CF774A7CA9F5E3ACD68367FF.ashx]

The Global Dow comprises 150 global blue-chip stocks, including all 30 components of the DJIA. Unlike the DJIA, which is a price-weighted index, the Global Dow is equal-weighted so that price moves in large stocks hold no disproportionate sway over the index. The Global Dow peaked on January 29, the day after the DJIA, and traced out [an Elliott wave pattern downward] to February 9, along with the U.S. blue-chip stock indexes.

But notice how each successive rally thereafter has topped at a lower high despite the hefty representation of U.S. blue chips...

Heavy is an understatement, because:

"...the U.S. accounts for more than 42% of the total index's valuation."
Needless to say, if the Global Dow's support shelf gives way, it could have profound implications for U.S. stocks, as well..........

Copyright © Elliott Wave International. All rights reserved.




What does that chart have to do with Wave Counts?


Lines In Sand (NYSE: LIS) are not part of Elliott.

With turn dates, I am now thinking that late August will be a LOW.

Although turn dates aren't part of Elliott Wave, the EWI folks have used them a lot.  And, I like to use turn dates as much as anything else -- with Japanese Candlesticks also helping.

So, what is their WAVE COUNT here?

Technically, the DEATH COUNT analog is still holding up aka the Post-1929 top bear market into 1932... so this is at least a small version of that.

I would call the high on January 29th as a Wave 3 high of some degree.  

Breaks in 1929 and again in 1987 were preceded by dress-rehearsal corrections earlier in the year -- actually by early Spring of those years.

I think stock patterns are unfolding slower.  

After another low, stocks can rally for up to a year...  

Stocks have looked too sluggish since the February 9th low, so that tells me it is part of a correction.

On this chart with January 29th being a high, I am counting 1 down, 2 up, then the wave 3 panic waterfall crash low hit on February 9th.

Since then stocks have been in a wave 4 correction.

Wave 5 down should take stocks to new lows.  
On this chart: 2900
For the Dow Jones Industrial Average around 23,000.

For this chart, I would look at e of 4 down already being in progress.

I actually don't like EWI's counts -- I think RN Elliott counted ok, but overall, most counts are WRONG.

Any a-b-c wave means you are inside Wave 4.  Bear markets have FIVE WAVES down, not 3.  Wave 5's up are greed waves, wave 3 down are PANIC waves -- these are most probably the most PROFITABLE waves to trade in the markets.

Other than Elliott Waves and using a bit of Bradley Model Siderograph turn dates and a bit of Japanese Candlesticks most other stuff doesn't really work that well -- and you really have to get the waves right.  

With turn dates/candlesticks only being relevant to identify possible turning points/trend changes.  





da bear










da bear
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#5
Can we zoom out here Mr Bear? How do you count the broad stock market advance since March 2009?
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#6
(06-29-2018, 09:13 PM)da bear Wrote:
(06-29-2018, 01:54 PM)aqua Wrote: Looks like the EW folks have stuck their neck out here.

Maybe Andrew will want to buy more stawks ?

He might even be right to do so........contrarian opinion and all that jazz....

This has an EWI copyright, but appears on the ZH site open to all.


For Stocks, the Line in the Sand Has been Drawn

What does that chart have to do with Wave Counts?


Lines In Sand (NYSE: LIS) are not part of Elliott.


da bear
The bit of verbiage about a "line in the sand" is from Zero Hedge.
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#7
(06-29-2018, 11:27 PM)Finster Wrote: Can we zoom out here Mr Bear?  How do you count the broad stock market advance since March 2009?


Well that decline was actually a decline in three waves/phases made up of A down B up and C down. So that was obviously a large Wave 4 of some degree. So this is Wave 5.

Probably a wave 5 up going all the way back to 1896 when the DJIA officially started. 144 years from there would be 2040. That would be a time frame to look at.

Mega rally since 1974:

I high in 1976.

II low in 1978 or 1980.

III high in 2000. With the 3 or III high in 1987.

C of IV ended in 2009.

V up in progress.

I like the NYSE (Ticker symbol NYA) for the rally since 2009. 
Looks like we are in 5 of 3 up.

I think once this decline ends hopefully by August and without too much technical damage then the think we get a 5 rally up to put in the last rally that started after the 2016 election. Then we will see about the subdivisions and extensions. 

55 years from 1974 would be 2029. Solid time for an ultimate top (if not 2040). Then 2040 could be a LOW.

After a high next year we could see more of a 1987 style crash.

Followed by another High by 2021. That would be the end of Primary 3. A b c correction after that then a final parabolic greed rally into the top of all tops. 

Gold should get some short covering soon. Although down to August could be the swing trade. 


I think if anything rallies into a breathless bubble high in March it will be Bitcoin. 

Last gasp for real estate bulls by next Spring. More than likely a B wave top. Although you shouldn't try to time a high and some markets are already softening.

If I can get some good charts going I will post 'em in a week or two.

But these are basically the important trades.





da bear
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#8
Mr. da Bear,

Has playing the market based on wave theories made you hyper wealthy yet? If it hasn't, why not?

It is a fine thing to be honest, but it is also very important to be right. - Winston Churchill
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#9
(07-05-2018, 12:39 AM)Innocynic Wrote: Mr. da Bear,

Has playing the market based on wave theories made you hyper wealthy yet?  If it hasn't, why not?

The real question is whether or not Robert Prechter is fabulously rich.

I do not think that is the case.

Technical analysis doesn't work.

oly
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#10
RULE 1 in investing:

Don't trust any chart where the axes don't go to zero at their origin
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