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UPDATE FROM DA GOLD DESK
#1
UPDATE FROM DA GOLD DESK


Gold had yet another ramp up, as it broke through that wide $1,200 to $1,300 range.  

As it stands, gold looking a bit toppy.

Overlapping mess in gold over the past several months...

Best count: inside a wave 4.

Going with a small sell signal with my bear senses tingling...

so, chart watching is key.... usually is at turns or possible turns....

Guessing we get $1,200 or $1,100 before we get to $1,400 or $1,500.

Going with e of 4 up topping out...

Sluggishness from here.

Too much overhead resistance.  

Companies hedging, locking in gold all the way up.  Refiners a bit touchy/grouchy/edgy.  Believe me, I KNOW.

I am looking for better entry points down the road...

Maybe you fly by the seat of your pants and trade out yer ass... ok, maybe you keep watching the tape and get out before a gap-down waterfall, panic sell-off.  BUT, looks to late to get in on this short-term bounce.

So, take some bets off the table.  Raise cash.  Put off buying a big hoard of gold...

Last I heard, premiums on gold coins were pretty low.  Last I sold, got a pretty bad quote/price.  My NU NU Coin Dude said he was just gonna scrap the junk.  Although it WUZ junk...

So it goes...










da bear

"When central banks compete, YOU WIN!" -- centralbankster.com

P.S.  My ALT BANK website still might be under MASSIVE HACKING????  Woops...  

P.P.S. Check out Central Bankster Facebook group on, uh, Facebook.  MIGHT be the OFFICIAL ALT BANK FB group... who knows...
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#2
[Image: 0829%20Gold_10yr2_GLDNOOCSJI.png]

An e-mail newsletter I subscribe to says gold is a "strong buy", but not to "back up the truck".
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#3
(08-29-2017, 06:13 PM)ModestProposals Wrote: [Image: 0829%20Gold_10yr2_GLDNOOCSJI.png]

An e-mail newsletter I subscribe to says gold is a "strong buy", but not to "back up the truck".

I think the big hedgies are trading in and out of gold.  Da Small Gold Bugs are buyers here and there (but they also sell).

Not much of a MIDDLE in the gold markets -- pension funds, mutual funds, etc. don't really seem to be in yet...

Not a ton of people who pick up a 1,000 ounces here and there -- not as many smaller institutions, at least that is what I think.





da bear
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#4
(08-29-2017, 05:44 PM)da bear Wrote: UPDATE FROM DA GOLD DESK


Gold had yet another ramp up, as it broke through that wide $1,200 to $1,300 range.  

As it stands, gold looking a bit toppy.

Overlapping mess in gold over the past several months...

Best count: inside a wave 4.

Going with a small sell signal with my bear senses tingling...

so, chart watching is key.... usually is at turns or possible turns....

Guessing we get $1,200 or $1,100 before we get to $1,400 or $1,500.

Going with e of 4 up topping out...

Sluggishness from here.

Too much overhead resistance.  

Companies hedging, locking in gold all the way up.  Refiners a bit touchy/grouchy/edgy.  Believe me, I KNOW.

I am looking for better entry points down the road...

Maybe you fly by the seat of your pants and trade out yer ass... ok, maybe you keep watching the tape and get out before a gap-down waterfall, panic sell-off.  BUT, looks to late to get in on this short-term bounce.

So, take some bets off the table.  Raise cash.  Put off buying a big hoard of gold...

Last I heard, premiums on gold coins were pretty low.  Last I sold, got a pretty bad quote/price.  My NU NU Coin Dude said he was just gonna scrap the junk.  Although it WUZ junk...

So it goes...










da bear

"When central banks compete, YOU WIN!" -- centralbankster.com

P.S.  My ALT BANK website still might be under MASSIVE HACKING????  Woops...  

P.P.S. Check out Central Bankster Facebook group on, uh, Facebook.  MIGHT be the OFFICIAL ALT BANK FB group... who knows...

My view is Gold in it's final stage multi-year consolidation. It could soar in  less  than a year.  But I agree. there is a chance to get in low price, even if I am not sure we could load up below 1200...

IN 70s and early 80s Gold bull run,  Gold took off from 35 to 198, then took correction to dropped 105  for years. Then soared to 850 before the crashed... If you add zero,  this could be pre-play of this current Gold bull run ...  My 2 cents...
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#5
(08-30-2017, 01:15 PM)hunter Wrote:
(08-29-2017, 05:44 PM)da bear Wrote: UPDATE FROM DA GOLD DESK


Gold had yet another ramp up, as it broke through that wide $1,200 to $1,300 range.  

As it stands, gold looking a bit toppy.

Overlapping mess in gold over the past several months...

Best count: inside a wave 4.

Going with a small sell signal with my bear senses tingling...

so, chart watching is key.... usually is at turns or possible turns....

Guessing we get $1,200 or $1,100 before we get to $1,400 or $1,500.

Going with e of 4 up topping out...

Sluggishness from here.

Too much overhead resistance.  

Companies hedging, locking in gold all the way up.  Refiners a bit touchy/grouchy/edgy.  Believe me, I KNOW.

I am looking for better entry points down the road...

Maybe you fly by the seat of your pants and trade out yer ass... ok, maybe you keep watching the tape and get out before a gap-down waterfall, panic sell-off.  BUT, looks to late to get in on this short-term bounce.

So, take some bets off the table.  Raise cash.  Put off buying a big hoard of gold...

Last I heard, premiums on gold coins were pretty low.  Last I sold, got a pretty bad quote/price.  My NU NU Coin Dude said he was just gonna scrap the junk.  Although it WUZ junk...

So it goes...










da bear

"When central banks compete, YOU WIN!" -- centralbankster.com

P.S.  My ALT BANK website still might be under MASSIVE HACKING????  Woops...  

P.P.S. Check out Central Bankster Facebook group on, uh, Facebook.  MIGHT be the OFFICIAL ALT BANK FB group... who knows...

My view is Gold in it's final stage multi-year consolidation. It could soar in  less  than a year.  But I agree. there is a chance to get in low price, even if I am not sure we could load up below 1200...

IN 70s and early 80s Gold bull run,  Gold took off from 35 to 198, then took correction to dropped 105  for years. Then soared to 850 before the crashed... If you add zero,  this could be pre-play of this current Gold bull run ...  My 2 cents...

Yeah, gold was highly volatile even inside its old bull market...

Super Long Term you can count Gold anyway you want...

That mid-Seventies correction looks like a good analog... yeah, gold got down to 106 or 108 or something...

ANOTHER one is the sell-off post January 1980.  It is actually EERIE how close to being a mini- Post '80 selloff gold is in...

If I can find that chart I will post it...

but if you look it up (hint, look at charts of gold on kitco.com under historical charts), then you can get some perspective.

Gold made a swift 3rd wave sell-off and actually TWO rallies inside an upward wave 4 correction with A and C ending UP.  A top in 1984 or 1985.  C high ran up into 1987 and topped, I think, in the Spring of 1988.

So, if stocks heavily correct next fall, then a C wave peak in Spring 2019 would line up fairly well...

The other analog which would work would be to compare GOLD to the DJIA after its 1937 Wave One top.  Gold is probably ALSO coming off a mega Wave One high.  

Ironically, the DJIA price from then and GLD now would be similar in price.  The 1937 high didn't fully correct until 1942 which was the actual low of that sell off.  DJIA high in 1937 was around 190 or maybe 190 on the dot.  3 down to 103 or something like that or maybe 106.  A 3 wave wave 4 rally (a-b-c) up to about 140 or 150, then a final 5 low to 90ish or 96 in 1942.

Short-term, I think e of 4 is over... now we get 5 down to somewhere below $1,200, possibly just below $1,100, then another rally for a year or 2 to about $1,450 to $1,600...

Still need pension money in gold, 401(k) money in gold, and we ALSO need the Bitcoin bubble to pop (although it could rally into 2020 or so).

My money would STILL be on a gold-backed/bimetallic blockchain currency.









da bear
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#6
One or two overnights with some heavy 'fat finger' sales action and the gold and silver people will be all depressed again.

oly
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#7
(08-30-2017, 10:42 PM)oly2059 Wrote: One or two overnights with some heavy 'fat finger' sales action and the gold and silver people will be all depressed again.

oly

Yeah, twitchy trigger fingers...  not much depth at the top.  Mostly HOT MONEY.  The small fry gold bug just doesn't move things much... 

Another thing that could happen: ok, no real big selling, but no BUYERS either... then gold could sell off again.

Last year's high was about $1,370.  For all the huffing and puffing, gold is still a bit below that...

Next six months or a year?  Probably a whipsaw, similar to the last couple of years...

$1,100 is still in play within the next six months...

Ok, maybe you can SELL NOW, but can you get back in (with size) at DA LOWS???


Who is gonna sell at DA LOWS???

If you need DA MONEY get cash.

If you need to top off your RAINY DAY FUND, I think you can do better a bit later on...

Last thing: Gold continues to be DA FEAR TRADE.  Storms, hurricanes, rent-a-mobs, Tales From Da Deep Swamp, whatever... gold is DA BACKUP PLAN.

Overall, WATCH DA TAPE.  My call here?  More downside than upside SHORT-TERM.  More likely, the next hundred bucks is DOWN.  

An upside breakout or even a non-break down of our favorite yellow metal would be more bullish...


so if it gets much past $1,400 then I like the odds of it going to at least $1,500 and maybe to $1,650.

I don't have gold getting that high (above $1,500) until next year... that would be a warning sign for stocks though, since they would be short-term overbought and over-extended technically.  










da bear
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#8
There is a whiff of deflation in the air, and gold and silver will not do well in a deflation.

oly
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#9
(08-31-2017, 05:55 PM)oly2059 Wrote: There is a whiff of deflation in the air, and gold and silver will not do well in a deflation.

oly


I think we can get 3 "thousand year floods" in the stock market/financial system/economy from now/2018 until 2029-2032.

I think all this Hurricane stuff will make the Fed more dovish... injecting liquidity into the system.  But I think real estate has topped out in many places and should do so in the last hold out areas by mid-2018.  

Key is Dallas.  Dallas held up well, going gangbusters, but recently even they were worried about softening rents and too many high end condo/partment high rises going up.  With Houston literally underwater or washed out, you think some people move to the Dallas Fort Worth area, and they will get extra cash too... so if Dallas STILL weakens or even begins to crash, then this Real Estate Mega Sucker Rally is OVER.

I am looking at some Bradley Siderograph model turn dates in early September.  I think the 3rd and the 7th or 9th.  So, if we can get some short term lows, I think this thing can rally into Summer/Fall 2018.  Looking at DJIA 27,000 by then, then a flash crash back down to 20,000 or so...

2020 crash could be a super doozy... DJIA 38,000 to 40,000 back down to 20,000 pretty dang quick.  NASDAQ 10,000 to around 4,000... GDP nosediving 10% or so within 6 weeks but a pretty decent bounce back by 2022.

Short-answer: you can probably go into an ELEVATED CASH POSITION until at least 2033.  An ELEVATED GOLD POSITION until 2033 or to 2045.  Solid amount of silver.  I guess T bills or short term paper (money markets).  Other than that, you really don't have any "LONG TERM INVESTMENTS".  Probably best thing to do would be to get AAA corporate bonds, and blue chip dividend stocks that trade on the NYSE (better yet, just DJIA stocks).  Other than that, you are a TRADER.  

EVERYTHING goes Super Nova by 2029 then, blows out.





da bear
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#10
MARKETZ UPDATEZ

DJIA in a corrective thingie... could still get a couple/few hundred points lower. Nasdaq 6,000 would be a nice stopping point for the correction.

Bradley Model Siderograph turn date coming up on September 7th. There was also one a few days ago on the 3rd... so let's see what happens here...

Not a bad time to raise a bit of cash, either way.

Gold futures fight for $1,350. Looks like a make or break level. $1,350 would max out an 'e' wave of upside 4 count.

A break below that would signify the beginning of 5 of b down...

BITCOIN: Wave v of Primary 3 top either in or coming SOON. High so far has been 4,300ish. 5,000 could be hit, but if I had to put money on a 1987 style October crash it would be BITCOIN!

Here is a link to DA BITCOIN CHART:

https://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstam...10zm2g25zv

Stocks, gold, bitcoin... pretty sure I covered the Big 3 assets right now...

Regarding Real Estate, still softening I think.

thehousingbubbleblog.com has the best blow by blow account of real estate. DA BEST site on the RE crash starting in 2005/2006. Looks like a replay. The B wave sucker high is IN in MOST places.

Other than that, I will write another Rant/Report/Manifesto once things start to either unravel or upravel.







da bear
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