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UPDATE FROM DA GOLD DESK
#11
5,800 another possible target for the NASDAQ over the next several weeks...

So, if Bitcoin corrects/crashes, and the broader stock markets keep correcting/trading water, does gold go UP as a fear trade/Paleohedge? OR, does it go DOWN, since hedgies need to meet their margin calls...

If it is a RACE TO CASH, then gold could also weaken.

Gold rallied based on external uncertainties such as the border wall, Russia, Trump, Russia, hurricanes, and pop-up, photo-op agitprop.






da bear
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#12
Type IV individual.

http://www.quotes-clothing.com/he-thinks...-campbell/

oly
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#13
(09-05-2017, 06:44 PM)oly2059 Wrote: Type IV individual.

http://www.quotes-clothing.com/he-thinks...-campbell/

oly

That is why I said to raise some cash.

That is ALSO why I listen to you!








da bear
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#14
There is no formula (other than hard and steady work).  There is no magic formula.

There are no magic beans.  Keep your eyes on your own damn cow.

There is no 'deus ex machina'.

What works a few times when making small bets will fail when you make the big bet.  Never bet more than 20% of the bank on one customer or one investment.  Those who are already wealthy should avoid concentrations in a single asset class.  When you are poor, you perhaps have to make a big bet on one thingie, but you should only bet on what you really know, not what you fantasize about.

Charting/ Technical ANAL-ysis DOES NOT WORK, plain and simple.  If Charting worked, poor people would be executed for possession of graph paper.

My views on trends are subject to change as time elapses.  My views of not betting the bank and my views on Charting are not.

Don't listen to me about any specific prediction.

It's not possible to hit a ten-for in Gold in real purchasing power terms.  Occasionally you might get a two-for, in purchasing power terms, but it won't last.

oly
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#15
(09-05-2017, 06:14 PM)da bear Wrote: 5,800 another possible target for the NASDAQ over the next several weeks...

So, if Bitcoin corrects/crashes, and the broader stock markets keep correcting/trading water, does gold go UP as a fear trade/Paleohedge? OR, does it go DOWN, since hedgies need to meet their margin calls...

If it is a RACE TO CASH, then gold could also weaken.  

Gold rallied based on external uncertainties such as the border wall, Russia, Trump, Russia, hurricanes, and pop-up, photo-op agitprop.






da bear

1. why would it be a race to cash?

2. do we ever really know why an asset class rallies?
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#16
(09-06-2017, 02:42 PM)cbeatty Wrote:
(09-05-2017, 06:14 PM)da bear Wrote: 5,800 another possible target for the NASDAQ over the next several weeks...

So, if Bitcoin corrects/crashes, and the broader stock markets keep correcting/trading water, does gold go UP as a fear trade/Paleohedge? OR, does it go DOWN, since hedgies need to meet their margin calls...

If it is a RACE TO CASH, then gold could also weaken.  

Gold rallied based on external uncertainties such as the border wall, Russia, Trump, Russia, hurricanes, and pop-up, photo-op agitprop.


da bear

1. why would it be a race to cash?

2. do we ever really know why an asset class rallies?

We had a race to cash in 2008.  One way to think of it is as a massive short squeeze.  Short squeezes happen when people borrow a lot of something (go short) and then it starts to rise in value.  You don't want to be short something when that happens, because you'll have to pay back more value than you borrowed.  So you scramble to repay what you borrowed quick before it goes up more.  If a lot of people do this it makes the thing shorted go up even faster because people get desperate to get it.  So a short squeeze can make the market value of something really soar.

In 2008, millions of people were short trillions of dollars cause they borrowed to the hilt to speculate on residential real estate.  A lot of them borrowed more than they could service because they figured they could quickly sell the real estate for more than they paid for it.  Banks were eager to lend because interest rates were artificially low courtesy of the Fed, so they here happy to make these loans.  When some started to go bad, this created that first surge in demand for cash.  Then with these millions of people short trillions of dollars, the dollar was caught in a short squeeze so severe it froze up the global financial system.  A deflationary crash.
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#17
(09-06-2017, 02:42 PM)cbeatty Wrote:
(09-05-2017, 06:14 PM)da bear Wrote: 5,800 another possible target for the NASDAQ over the next several weeks...

So, if Bitcoin corrects/crashes, and the broader stock markets keep correcting/trading water, does gold go UP as a fear trade/Paleohedge? OR, does it go DOWN, since hedgies need to meet their margin calls...

If it is a RACE TO CASH, then gold could also weaken.  

Gold rallied based on external uncertainties such as the border wall, Russia, Trump, Russia, hurricanes, and pop-up, photo-op agitprop.






da bear

1. why would it be a race to cash?

2. do we ever really know why an asset class rallies?

1.  When no trade is working, then people go to cash.  Weakness in stocks and metals plus a high-level-consolidation technical correction/flash crash in Bitcoin ALONG WITH the continued sluggishness in real estate will force people into cash.  

2.  We never really know why ANYBODY does ANYTHING.  You just have to rely on patterns, history, and a decent understanding of BOTH economics and psychology.  A working knowledge of poker helps too...







da bear
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#18
There's no money out there right now.

People who have lots of possessions/things, but little cash, are getting pretty nervous.

There is a whiff of honest-to-god deflation in the air. First time in my lifetime for the general economy.

oly
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#19
(09-06-2017, 05:08 PM)oly2059 Wrote: There's no money out there right now.

People who have lots of possessions/things, but little cash, are getting pretty nervous.

There is a whiff of honest-to-god deflation in the air.  First time in my lifetime for the general economy.

oly

I am perplexed by this. How is it determined? Where does the money go? The FED hasn't started asset buybacks, that I am aware of. Debt continues to expand. Employment and earnings are up. What am I missing?





da bear Wrote: Wrote:
(9 hours ago)cbeatty Wrote: Wrote:
(09-05-2017, 06:14 PM)da bear Wrote: Wrote:If it is a RACE TO CASH, then gold could also weaken.  

Gold rallied based on external uncertainties such as the border wall, Russia, Trump, Russia, hurricanes, and pop-up, photo-op agitprop.

da bear

1. why would it be a race to cash?

2. do we ever really know why an asset class rallies?

1.  When no trade is working, then people go to cash.  Weakness in stocks and metals plus a high-level-consolidation technical correction/flash crash in Bitcoin ALONG WITH the continued sluggishness in real estate will force people into cash.  

da bear

How does that happen? If they sell to go to cash, doesn't somebody else have to buy with cash? Now if a lot of people go to sell at once, then perhaps prices are forced down to entice buyers. But the amount of cash remains the same. The amount gained by selling assets equals the amount expended to buy the same assets, less friction costs. the same amount of cash in the system. Some people went to cash; others went from cash. What am I missing? (but the good news ,,,,,,,,, lower prices!)

(THIS SITE HAS A HORRIBLE RESPONSE MECHANISM; PART OF THE REASON IT MAY BE A WHISKER AWAY FROM IT'S DEMISE)(SORRY SN, I KNOW YOU'VE PUT A LOT OF WORK IN IT, BUT IT'S CUMBERSOME)
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#20
(09-07-2017, 12:06 AM)cbeatty Wrote: How does that happen? If they sell to go to cash, doesn't somebody else have to buy with cash? Now if a lot of people go to sell at once, then perhaps prices are forced down to entice buyers. But the amount of cash remains the same. The amount gained by selling assets equals the amount expended to buy the same assets, less friction costs. the same amount of cash in the system. Some people went to cash; others went from cash. What am I missing? (but the good news ,,,,,,,,, lower prices!)

Was my reply unsatisfactory?  I made the case above the answer lies in excess credit, citing a real world example.
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