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Deutsche Bank Bigger Threat Than Lehman
#1
“You Can't Compare Deutsche Bank To Lehman”

[Image: original_63416135.?1474914149]

'Deutsche Bank debt is taking a beating'

Quote:When it comes to Deutsche Bank, credit investors are understandably nervous, and they’re selling corporate debt issued by Europe’s largest lender across all risk levels and maturities.

Fears that a potential U. S.fine over the bank’s dealings in mortgage-related securities could, in a worst-case scenario, be the final blow that puts Europe’s largest lender out of business have sparked a selloff in tradable credit securities issued by Deutsche Bank, with the riskiest bonds seeing the sharpest moves.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/deutsch...2016-09-27 

When this sucker goes look out!
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#2
Here's a chart showing the entire value of Germany's GDP, the European Union's GDP, and

Deutsche Bank's derivative book:





[Image: DB%20gross%20exposure_0.jpg]





Today's news from the UK:





http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016...--and-the/



[Image: deutsche-xlarge_trans++SZCfQn3UNBPwFTCNO...s56kOA.jpg]

The Deutsche Bank crisis could take Angela Merkel down – and the Euro
www.telegraph.co.uk
There are some words that make such an unlikely pairing that we find it hard to put them together.




And German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Saturday 9/24 ruled out any chance for a bailout:



http://www.bloomberg.com//news/articles/...us-reports

[Image: -1x-1.jpg]

Merkel Rules Out Help for Deutsche Bank, Focus Magazine Reports
www.bloomberg.com
Chancellor Angela Merkel has ruled out any state assistance for Deutsche Bank AG in the year heading into the national election in September 2017, Focus magazine reported, citing unidentified government officials.



She did not, however, rule out a bail-in.


And what's been happening to the bank's stock price?



The same thing that happened to Lehman Bros. bank just before they went under in 2008:





[Image: 20160926_leh_0.jpg]




Its failure will have massive ramifications.



And the entire Italian banking system is on the verge of collapse.



But what scares me even more than a bank bailout in the US is a bank bail-in ala Cyprus.



The Europeans are already setting up such a system, and the prospect of that same thing happening here is actually quite high.



And yet you thought that the money that you have in the bank is really 'your' money.



Hahahahahahahahaha............



Nope.  'Fraid not.



Perhaps you need to spend some time actually studying the fractional-reserve banking system in the US.



Along with reading some SCOTUS decisions regarding same.



That's when you'll discover that it's actually the banks' money.



You are merely another unsecured creditor.



For the amount that you thought was 'your' balance.





After the first domino falls,



Guess what happens next.
"Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences."  -- RLStevenson
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#3
Great links. Thanks Diverdown! Armstrong thinks this might be what sets capital fleeing into the dollar.
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#4
(09-27-2016, 08:14 PM)StingingNettle Wrote: Great links.  Thanks Diverdown!  Armstrong thinks this might be what sets capital fleeing into the dollar.


Capital fleeing to the dollar

gives US, USA,


cheaper prices and cheaper SILVER/Gold prices
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#5
I have been closely watching GBP EUR. I think long term the Euro will cease to be. In the short term, I think GBP, the UK pound, will go up against the Euro probably until around next Tuesday 4th October. I think there could then be a short term drop in the UK pound against the Euro, not exactly sure of the exact days and it might not start until later in the week or even the week beginning Monday 10th October. I am not sure of the size of that move, and it could even take the UK pound to a new low against the Euro, before the UK pound rally really begins.

I think GBP EUR is going to be very volatile. You are better with the US dollar, which imo is a certain winner because it is the inverse of Gold and commodities, and there is a long term serious global disinflation going on which is positive for the US dollar. The Euro and the UK pound are fighting over credit expansion and contraction, which is different from inflation and disinflation.
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#6
B drops big today!  

[Image: 20160929_EOD12.jpg]

From Armstrong's blog today:

[Image: DB-Exposure.jpg]
Quote:
Ten of the large hedge funds are withdrawing from Deutsche Bank. What must be understood here is that Deutsche Bank is the main clearing house for trades in Europe. The problem the hedge funds have is where do they move for clearing? Short-term, they can move to New York or London. With over $60 trillion derivative book at the Deutsche Bank, the government is totally incapable of even understanding how to deal with this crisis. We are looking at a major crisis in confidence.


Read the rest here: https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/inter...wn-crisis/
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#7
This article is saying that German banks and the Eurozone are in far more danger than the Brexit threat to the City of London http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016...eat-dream/

I noticed that on the GBP to EUR chart, that the UK pound has fallen about 50% from the top of its recent rally from the very bottom. I am wondering if there will be a week's rally, and maybe another drop after that, but ultimately the UK pound should go up against the Euro massively and the Euro could cease to exist.
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#8
The German economy itself is highly vulnerable. I'll post more on this later
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#9
(09-29-2016, 10:56 PM)silverfish Wrote: This article is saying that German banks and the Eurozone are in far more danger than the Brexit threat to the City of London http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016...eat-dream/

I noticed that on the GBP to EUR chart, that the UK pound has fallen about 50% from the top of its recent rally from the very bottom.  I am wondering if there will be a week's rally, and maybe another drop after that, but ultimately the UK pound should go up against the Euro massively and the Euro could cease to exist.


I do think so.

It's not just German banks or even Deutsche Bank in particular (although that may be the linchpin catalyst)
but virtually all European banks:



[Image: negative-rates-are-killing-european-banks-1.png]



And their derivative books and swap agreements are so intertwined
that when one goes down, it'll take the rest with them:





[Image: DB%20IMF%201_0.jpg]




The next world-wide systemic financial collapse will no doubt start in Europe.

Just like it did in the 1930s.........
"Sooner or later everyone sits down to a banquet of consequences."  -- RLStevenson
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#10
(09-29-2016, 10:56 PM)silverfish Wrote: This article is saying that German banks and the Eurozone are in far more danger than the Brexit threat to the City of London http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016...eat-dream/

I noticed that on the GBP to EUR chart, that the UK pound has fallen about 50% from the top of its recent rally from the very bottom. I am wondering if there will be a week's rally, and maybe another drop after that, but ultimately the UK pound should go up against the Euro massively and the Euro could cease to exist.

Ironically the EU may need British banks for clearing if things continue to go sour. That would be politically embarrassing since the BREXIT
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