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Well, guess I took the wrong trades on Friday.  

I think 5 down extended.  MAYBE.  If this level holds THEN I think 5 of C of 4 is over, so 5 up can start which SHOULD go to new highs -- somewhere above DJIA 30,000ish.

BUT the highs off that would be a bigger B top off the correction that started in January/February 2018.

DA CORONOVIRUS trade is over for now.  DA BERNIE TRADE is still ongoing but shorts should be covering.  Now. or very soon.

GOLD looks over bought so maybe you take some profits up here.  At least in paper gold.  Transition some physical gold into nickels or other forms of Da Fiat Metals.

Cash is still good.  

Bernie looks like Da Trump of this election cycle.

Trump vs. Bernie would give us two old national socialists battling it out.  Da Libertarians might have a shot here.  If not as the spoiler ticket, then the ticket that gets us to an Electoral College Tie.


... ask Da Gold Club about #269!!!

Stocks could rally (IF the short term lows are in) INTO May or so.  Possibly into August.  IF this thing breaks down BEFORE Da Election all Da Shit is gonna hit Da Fan!!!


Bitcoin: watch da tape and da charts!!!  crypto stocks COULD rally even if Bitcoin gets sluggish.

Could be a VERY BAVARIAN SPRING for Da Housing Market!!!

Is Tulsi Gabbard the only Democrat candidate I would trust to commandeer a Peloton bike commercial?  Yes.

Peloton bike ads are AWESOMELY BAD.

Bloomberg TV ads are ABYSMALLY GOOD.

The choices: DEMOCRATIC Communism, warmed-over National Socialism... or, fuck it, just gimme DA KEYS!!!

da bear

"Turn Da Bloomberg Machine back ON!!!"
Gold is off $20 bucks today....  is gold short-term over bought?

Probably too late to chase gold here.

Stocks melted down which means it should be over-sold at some point.

Could also mean that this is a larger-degree decline.

From January/February 2018, WAVE A down is in DA BOOKS.  Wave a of B up could be over.  So... B down is in progress.  With stocks getting hit by iii, iv and v of 3 down.  At some point shorts begin to cover (was that at today's close?) then you get a short gap up a bit for Wave 4 up.  Finally, 5 down.  From there, we get a bigger, stronger rally for a c of B rally aka DA RALLY to put in DA BIGGER B TOP.  A TOP BEFORE the election would be BIGLY BAD for civilization.  A TOP AFTER the election/inauguration would be ... better.  

Still a possibility of an August 2021 high which would be similar to the August 1987 high.  It WOULD be 34 years later....

DJIA low for this move down might not occur until 25,000ish or 24,000ish.

As always, STAY TOONED.

da bear
If the DJIA retraces 61.8% of its rally from 21,700ish then 24,600ish would be the low.

for that to happen we could need an a-b-c move made up of two a-b-c patterns. I think 3 of c down is done. Then look for 4 up (short covering) then 5 of c down. BUT that might just be A down. Could still get a bigger B and then a Bigger C down.

The bear market from January/February 2018 could last well into late 2021.

Watch the waves.

Watch the tape.

Hold some gold.

Git cash.

Eat Mor Nickels.

da bear
Keep cash.

eat mor nickels.

bounce here.  stocks are gonna see some shorts cover then A RETEST OF THE LOWS.  Fill some of that bigly gap.

looking at 24,600 on the DJIA for the low for this move.

gold is swooning.  Let's see what happens.  A rally at some point that STILL can't get above the highs from the other day will be BEARISH.

Bitcoin not looking great.  But, not bad.  corrective but maybe it has been corrective for a year or two.  so, uhh, watch the tape on that.

BernieVirus wave count?  Not sure!  Gonna look!  Probably a short term high let's see if he holds on into Stupor Newsday.

da bear
Your charts predicted exactly NONE of this.

Plain and simple.

At least having no money, you had nothing to lose.
Stocks bounced a bit.  Highs for the day could be in.  I wanna see a retest of the lows if the DJIA can make a run up to 27,000 a bit later.  So a-b-c of A up of 4 up might be in.  B low could be swift.  Then C up should be 1.618 times the length of A up.

after that as the DOW goes to 26500 or 27000ish then it goes down again for 5 down.  22,000ish should hold as a low....

nickels and cash are nice here.

Gold is bouncing a bit.  Sell into this rally if you wanna cash in gains.

da bear
gold had a nice spike up today after Da Fed cut rates.

you can probably take a bit of profits here.  

iv up in 3 down is over???

not sure what the wave count for gold is, but take some profits, especially in "paper gold".  Might wanna hang on to the "real stuff" though.

Junk silver and fiat metals are the new new metals to stock up on.

I think stocks are gonna retest Fridays lows/Mondays lows soon.  So that would be B down.  C up of 4 should at least start by Friday... or Monday.  

5 down of this move could be orderly -- or not.  with DJIA 22,000ish being a target.

From there... 5 waves for a rally....  If it happens REAL FAST then that would actually be BEARISH -- with the sell-off off that high taking out THESE LOWS AND the lows from 2018.  

Milder scenario still sees a low of 22,000ish or so then a rally to new (bigger B) highs.  And, instead of just grazing DOW 30,000 (where the quick A-B-C move would do) you get something closer to 33,000 or 34,000.    A target for a Bigger B Wave top would be sometime mid-to-late 2021.  ULTIMATE LOW would be 20,000 or somewhere just below that. 

A decline from 34,000 to 17,000 would be a 50% correction.  And, it would be SWIFT.

Also... a slight chance of "death count potential".  That would mean DOW 22,000ish would be WAVE 1 down.  A smaller five wave rally from there would NOT reach new highs... THEN you get a BIGGER crash.  So... something approaching 20% or 25% -- or more.

Hmm, I guess I would call THAT scenario #DeathMarchMadness

da bear

There is a turn date on March 17th.  So... this thing could drag out a bit.

could be an even bigger A-B-C decline.  But, quick.

I think there is an early May turn date too.  

Watch the tape. Watch the waves.

Keep stacking cash and nickels.  I might like physical silver here more than gold.  well, at least for practical day-to-day purposes.

da bear

According to the Bradley Model Siderograph website the turn dates for this year are March 17th, May 11th, August 19th, and December 2.

This is showing a low on March 17th, higher by early May, sideways into the HIGH for the year by August 19th THEN a big sell off into a low by December 2nd.

A high for the year in August 19th would PROBABLY be similar to a 1987 style high.

Market is set up for a Biden/Tulsi Ticket.

da bear
This small wave 4 inside this bigger correction might be an a-b-c move.

I like the idea of 'a' being over.  And then this is 'b UP of 'b' down.  

Might not come out of this 4 triangle for a few more trading sessions.

Wave 5 low might take at least a week or two to get a low in.  Or, next Monday at the earliest.

da bear

targets for a wave 4 high: 27,500 to 28,000ish.  Maybe 27,700ish.

Maybe this thing takes 2 or 3 more days -- or a week for Wave 4 to complete.

Wave 5 low potential is 22,000ish.

once wave 4 up is done, maybe you can do a bullish paper gold trade.  But, until then I think gold bugs take some profits.

yeah, i still like nickels here.

da bear
I still don't get how any of that's relevant in a Black Swan event like Covid 19
(03-03-2020, 08:13 PM)DaveGillie Wrote: I still don't get how any of that's relevant in a Black Swan event like Covid 19

BernieVirus is a black swan too.

Traders who went short the other day are either covering, going to cash, or are confused.

Covid 19 should ALSO have a wave count.  

da bear

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