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DA JANUARY BRIEF UPDATE RANT
#21
Somebody asked me "Do you know anybody, ever, who has died of the flu?".

At sixty years old, I have to say, in all honesty,that the answer is a firm "No".

I can't really say that I even know of a single sick and elderly person who was pushed over the edge by any passing flu virus.

Yesterday (12 February 2020) all three of the most frequently quoted stock market indices finished the day at all-time record closing highs.

Nothing happening here in Mid-America.
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#22
(02-13-2020, 06:48 PM)oly2059 Wrote: Somebody asked me "Do you know anybody, ever, who has died of the flu?".

At sixty years old, I have to say, in all honesty,that the answer is a firm "No".

I can't really say that I even know of a single sick and elderly person who was pushed over the edge by any passing flu virus.

Yesterday (12 February 2020) all three of the most frequently quoted stock market indices finished the day at all-time record closing highs.

Nothing happening here in Mid-America.


The media has Coronavirus Derangement Syndrome.  Not saying it isn't a bad virus but they aren't really helping.








da bear
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#23
Hmmm I'm not so sure

In an emergency situation the natural tendency of the crowd is to initially under react and then only much later - often too late - they over react. ie Panic.

I can see lots of industries being immediately impacted by this virus:

Airlines
Airports
Hotels
Cruise liners
Medical insurance
Car rentals
Oil & gas industries
Food exports to China
Any industry that is reliant on manufacturing in China

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/wuhan...?r=US&IR=T
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#24
(02-15-2020, 03:10 AM)andrew_o Wrote: Hmmm I'm not so sure

In an emergency situation the natural tendency of the crowd is to initially under react and then only much later - often too late - they over react. ie Panic.

I can see lots of industries being immediately impacted by this virus:

Airlines
Airports
Hotels
Cruise liners
Medical insurance
Car rentals
Oil & gas industries
Food exports to China
Any industry that is reliant on manufacturing in China

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/wuhan...?r=US&IR=T

.
always easier to see the negative

on the more positive side:
1. Taiwan mask manufacturers dramatically ramp up mask production
2. Marco economic efficiency of people leaving out items considered more "luxury" (most of those things in your list)
3. Competition between China and every other Country in the world just changed more to favor others
4. Preppers somewhat vindicated in their quest for being Prepared (my favorite old Boy Scout motto)
5. Big investments flow to certain forward looking medical researchers 
(My favorite and most profitable: SHIONOGI & CO LTD)
6. Carbon energy envior wacks happy about less energy useage (oh wait, they're NOT "happier", everything makes them more angry - nothing ever makes them more happy)
7.  An easy learning lesson snap shot picture of many things, like how to prepare yourself for a real future epidemic, and how Govt will act (YES, USA etc - not just China, will lie and be fascist and stupid if it gets bad here)
8+. Lots of other things (assuming you're not Chinese in China)
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#25
Yep, all good Dave.

Plus it's a shot across the bows to any manufacturer solely reliant on the Chinese
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#26
and now this:

Coronavirus Outbreak Exposes China’s Monopoly on U.S. Drug, Medical Supplies

The coronavirus outbreak has exposed the United States’ dangerous dependence on China for pharmaceutical and medical supplies, including an estimated 97 percent of all antibiotics and 80 percent of the active pharmaceutical ingredients needed to produce drugs in the United States.

The economic repercussions of the coronavirus reveal the dangers of allowing one country to have a near monopoly on global manufacturing, David Dayen explains in an article at the American Prospect:

Perhaps the biggest concern is over medical supplies. China produces and exports a large amount of pharmaceuticals to the U.S., including 97 percent of all antibiotics and 80 percent of the active ingredients used to make drugs here. Penicillin, ibuprofen, and aspirin largely come from ChinaLast month, the medical supply firm Cardinal Health recalled 2.9 million surgical gowns “cross contaminated” at a plant in China; the blood pressure drug valsartan also saw shortages recently, thanks to tainted active ingredients at one Chinese plant. The combination of supply chain disruptions and increased demand at hospitals if coronavirus spreads to the U.S. could prove devastating.

In a dark irony, most of the world’s face masks—now ubiquitous in China as a precaution—are made in China and Taiwan, and even for those made elsewhere, some component parts are Chinese-sourced. Shortages have led China to declare the masks a “strategic resource,” reserving them for medical workers. U.S. hospitals are “critically low” on respiratory masks, according to medical-supply middlemen. Lack of protective gear could increase vulnerability to the virus, and the one place on earth suffering from production shutdowns is the one place where most of the protective gear originates [emphasis added].
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#27
(02-15-2020, 11:06 PM)andrew_o Wrote: and now this:

Coronavirus Outbreak Exposes China’s Monopoly on U.S. Drug, Medical Supplies
............


Be CAREFUL with intuition (emotion) vs logic and reason.

There has been a very old argument about whether or not to use the super important efficiency of MASS Production.

Fill in the blank, but item <____>  whatever, has those same issues. Do you really want every HOUSEHOLD making their own <fill in the blank again>


Problems pop up some times of course, but the price of NOT having MASS production is to live in the poor POOR sick PAST.

there are ways to mitigate the risk without spreading panic or fear mongering or zenophobia or Luddism
.

Quote:https://www.britannica.com/explore/savin...roduction/
ass production, application of the principles of specialization, division of labour, and standardization of parts to the manufacture of goods. Such manufacturing processes attain high rates of output at low unit cost, with lower costs expected as volume rises. Mass production methods are based on two general principles: (1) the division and specialization of human labour and (2) the use of tools, machinery, and other equipment, usually automated, in the production of standard, interchangeable parts and products. The use of modern methods of mass production has brought such improvements in the cost, quality, quantity, and variety of goods available that the largest global population in history is now sustained at the highest general standard of living.


Quote:The age of mass-production

Mass-production comes with many benefits. It's a more efficient method of production, and it greatly benefits businesses. It standardizes products and creates economies of scale, lowering the prices of goods and ensuring consistency.
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#28
Not against mass production but it's foolish to have it all in one country.

It's a lesson the auto industry learned back in the 60's. For example today Ford disperses it's manufacturing plants so that no one nation or union can break them.
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#29
(02-16-2020, 06:27 PM)andrew_o Wrote: Not against mass production but it's foolish to have it all in one country.
...........

.
SO it's just a matter of degree then to you huh Andrew?

Others argue don't have it all in one household, City or State or Region of the world,
YOU want to dictate "Country" to be the arbitrary subjective limit.
I'm assuming you don't count countries like Swaziland as "Countries"?

ME? I trust a FREE Enterprise Capitalist system to make the determination of "degree" (on average on a MACRO level), rather than Politics or YOU or any other sideline view back seat driver without their own skin in the game.
SURE it's not always perfect, but that is really irrelevant.
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#30
There's probably a formula for MBA's to determine how much redundancy and slack should be in a system, just in case Just-In-Time Inventory goes SNAFU.  

Further advanced stats should show the OPTIMIZED supply chain for a particular business or industry. Hubs/spokes should be looked at.











da bear
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