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  Finally, "LUCK" Explained!
Posted by: DaveGillie - 11-26-2019, 03:17 AM - Forum: Misc - Replies (5)

Doesn't surprise me at all
explains why you doomers has such bad "luck" LOL


Science Shows That Luck Is a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
https://getpocket.com/explore/item/scien...ket-newtab



Optimists are the lucky ones. Photo from Reuters/Phil Noble.
You’re so lucky! How do I know? Because, to name just a few factors, you’re literate, can access the internet, and have great taste (you’re reading this story, after all). And social scientists would advise against you arguing otherwise—because how lucky we feel influences our future fortunes.
That is to say, we’re only as lucky as we think we are, and luck begets luck. This makes optimists the luckiest people of all, according to Bloomsberg University philosophy professor Steven Hales, who writes in Aeon, “Luck might not be a genuine quality of the world at all…Luck judgments are a matter of perspective.”
The Lucky Ones
In a study to be published in the journal Philosophical Psychology, Hales and experimental psychologist Jennifer Johnson tested their hypothesis that optimists are more likely to see other people’s experiences as lucky, while pessimists focus on misfortune in the same set of facts. They used real-life stories of “ambiguous luck”—for example, a Japanese man who survived the bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in World War II, practically unscathed, and lived a long life, and an American soldier who had a rocket-propelled grenade, which did not explode, lodged in his abdomen. Both men survived horrific experiences, which makes them lucky—unless you think that the fact that bad things happened to them at all makes them unlucky.
To assess the relationship between personality traits and perceptions of fortune, Hales and Johnson gave study participants a commonly-used psychological assessment—the Life Orientation Test. With this, the researchers determined the extent to which subjects were optimists or pessimists. Next, study subjects rated the luck of people in ambiguous real-life stories as unlucky, somewhat unlucky, somewhat lucky, or lucky.
The researchers found “a significant positive correlation” between subjects’ level of optimism and how lucky they thought others were. “One of the things this means is that the more optimistic you are, the more you think others are lucky. If you are more of a pessimist, you’re likelier to see others as suffering bad luck,” Hales writes.
Framing Fortune
But the extent of our optimism isn’t the only thing that influences how we evaluate luckiness. The language that’s used to frame a story also influences the way we perceive events.
For example, another Hales and Johnson experiment asked study subjects to read a set of identical facts about other people, presented in a positive or negative light. In one vignette, a woman got five out of six winning lottery numbers. But two versions of her tale were told. In one, she considers herself lucky for coming close. In the other, she curses her perpetual bad luck for always falling short of a win. The different frames for the same facts “strikingly”  influenced how other people perceived her fortune, according to the study. Hales argues in Aeon that these experiments show that judgments about luck are inconsistent and changeable, “the predictable result of framing effects and idiosyncratic personality traits.”
Happy Accidents
These perceptions of fortune matter not just because it’s more fun to feel lucky than cursed. Recognizing the role that good fortune—say, being born into a well-off family—plays in successes means that we’re more likely to work to ensure opportunities for others, too, via social programs, for example. That’s what former US president Barack Obama was getting at when he noted, “If you’ve got a business—you didn’t build that. Somebody else made that happen.” Obama was pointing to the ways that government and social support enables people to achieve their goals. “If you were successful,” he said, “somebody along the line gave you some help.”
Because American culture prizes the story of the individual who picks themselves up by their bootstraps, some bristled at Obama’s assertion. Yet effort and talent are only part of any success story. And refuting that fact is why some feel little obligation to give back, to spread the wealth when it comes to opportunity.
That’s in keeping with the research of Cornell University economics professor Robert Frank. “A growing body of evidence suggests that seeing ourselves as self-made—rather than as talented, hardworking, and lucky—leads us to be less generous and public-spirited,” Frank writes in The Atlantic. “It may even make the lucky less likely to support the conditions (such as high-quality public infrastructure and education) that made their own success possible.”
Frank explains in Quartz that most people mistakenly believe their success is the inevitable result of hard work or personal qualities, ignoring the fact that they’ve made a lucky draw in a numbers game. But, he argues, “even in the most competitive arenas, it is almost impossible to make it to the top without having also enjoyed at least a bit of good fortune along the way. And as luck would have it, acknowledging that simple fact may actually make us more likely to succeed.”
Again, perception matters. Frank’s experiments have shown that people who acknowledge luck as an element of their success are more attractive to others. They’re well-liked and more likely to get hired because they make better teammates than someone who can’t acknowledge the odds, and believes they’re a force unto themselves.
Ultimately, the ability to recognize fortune’s role makes for a more humble person—and humility is a more attractive quality than arrogance. In that sense, then, acknowledging fortune also pays off.
Seeing Opportunity
Experimental psychologist Richard Wiseman spent a decade studying “the luck factor” (pdf), examining what role luck had in people’s lives and its relationship to feelings of fortune. He argues that luck is a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy.
In one experiment, Wiseman ran a half-page ad in a newspaper promising money for those who replied. Study subjects who were anxious and saw themselves as unlucky simply failed to see and respond to the ad. Meanwhile, people who identified as fortunate did see the ad, responded, got the money, and continued to feel lucky, according to their own reports.
Wiseman posits that feeling unlucky creates fear and anxiety, which in turn makes us less likely to see opportunities. Lucky people are, to some degree, those who keep their eyes, minds, and hearts open, making themselves available for fortune.
The Upside of Downsides
There’s no denying that bad things do happen to people all the time, many of which are beyond our control. Apparently, however, the way we frame events shapes the extent to which we focus on the negative versus positive aspects of experiences.
If the academics who study the science of luck are right, two people with identical experiences may frame the same facts completely differently. And the way they tell themselves the tale will dictate not only how they feel, but how others feel about them, and even their future fortunes.
The luckiest among us, then, are great storytellers—magical realists who can see the upside of downturns and consider how much worse things might have been. People who can spin a yarn that emphasizes what went right, rather than focusing solely on what went awry, ultimately create good fortune, and thus up their chances of getting lucky again. Don’t you feel lucky to know that?

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  Bannon's War Room is great!
Posted by: doubletroublejim - 11-25-2019, 07:20 PM - Forum: Politics - Replies (2)

Just found it . Absolutely the best.  Listen to it on warroom.org.  Or I get it on my Rokku from Newsmax televised live from 9am to 10am.  

Always have liked Bannon, but would really like him to explain the episode that got him kicked out of the White House.  His analysis of the impeachment is spot on IMO and very informative.  He talks a lot about the how and why of the media war against Trump, the techniques used,  and who gets to control the narrative.  VERY informative.  He says to enjoy your Thanksgiving because it's really SHTF time next week.

I don't know the two co-hosts but one is an ex Farage operative who is also extraordinary.

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  USA Resumes War in Syria
Posted by: aqua - 11-25-2019, 07:08 PM - Forum: Politics - Replies (1)

Confused  What the hell.  That went down hill fast.

https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-...-in-syria/


Following a brief hiatus, the U.S.-led coalition to defeat the Islamic State said it started launching large-scale operations to combat Islamic State militants in Syria once more amid increased danger from Daesh attacks.

Combined Joint Task Force — Operation Inherent Resolve announced Saturday that coalition forces completed a clearance mission in eastern Syria’s Deir ez-Zor province Friday that led to multiple ISIS casualties. More than a dozen ISIS fighters were captured, but officials provided no specific numbers regarding fatalities and injuries.

OIR also said that a “significant amount” of small arms, homemade explosives and ammunition were recovered in the clearance operation.

Air Force Maj. Gen. Eric Hill, commander of Special Operations Joint Task Force–Operation Inherent Resolve, said the coalition’s special operations branch “remains committed to our relentless pursuit of Daesh.”

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  Illegal Alien Accused of Murdering Girl
Posted by: andrew_o - 11-25-2019, 06:19 PM - Forum: Politics - No Replies

Reading US media, I am seeing these reports on an almost daily basis now.

Sanctuary County: Freed Illegal Alien Accused of Murdering 19-Year-Old Girl

Quote:A suspect charged with murdering his 19-year-old girlfriend in August is an illegal alien living in the United States who was previously freed by the sanctuary county of Durham, North Carolina...

A law enforcement source confirmed that Guzman is an illegal alien who arrived in the U.S. around September 2015 and was given a notice to appear in immigration court by Border Patrol....
In December 2018, Guzman was arrested by the Durham Police Department after allegedly robbing two victims at gunpoint in separate incidents. The same month as the armed robberies, Durham County Sheriff Clarence Birkhead announced that he was ending all cooperation with ICE, turning the region into a sanctuary jurisdiction.

Subsequently, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agency requested that the sanctuary county of Durham County hold Guzman until he could be properly turned over to agents.
News reports like these will be slowly eroding support for sanctuary cities

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  34 % of Black Voters Approve of Trump
Posted by: andrew_o - 11-25-2019, 06:09 PM - Forum: Politics - Replies (2)

Two polls in a row show 34 % support for Trump among black voters.

Democrats’ Worst Nightmare: Polls Show 34 Percent of Black Likely Voters Approve of Donald Trump


Quote:A pair of recent polls show that 34 percent of black likely voters approve of President Donald Trump’s presidency, a stunning development that could have a massive impact on his re-election campaign in 2020.
A Rasmussen poll released Friday showed black likely voter approval of Trump at 34 percent. An Emerson Poll showed 34.5 percent approval by the same demographic.
Even from this side of the Pacific it was evident Trump was getting some cut-through in the black community. 
To my mind Trump is a President whose policies are designed to help the working class and the results so far show that. So it's not surprising then that his support among ethnic minorities is on the rise. Maybe blacks are at long last shedding the chains the Democrats put on them.

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  Ukraine Scandal engulfs another Republican
Posted by: aqua - 11-25-2019, 01:33 PM - Forum: Politics - No Replies

Wow.  The Ukraine seems to be a bottomless pit of scandal.

Maybe Trump will actually find something on Biden ? ?

But so far, the pit seems to be full of Republicans.....

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/ho...840762.php

"...The former Texas governor has recently come under scrutiny in the House impeachment inquiry over his discussions with Ukraine. Alex Edelman / Bloomberg

  • The storm clouds gathering above Rick Perry as he informed President Donald Trump last month he planned to resign obscured the unlikeliest of developments: He’d lasted much longer than many of the administration’s top lieutenants.The politician who’d proposed abolishing the Department of Energy during his ill-fated 2012 run for the Republican presidential became an enthusiastic booster after taking the helm. He kept a low profile, touting fossil fuels, of course, but also research into alternative energy. Under his leadership, the department ran relatively smoothly.It seemed an impressive performance for a man who famously forgot in a primary debate the department was one of three he wanted to abolish, then punctuated the moment with his utterance of the word “oops.”

  •  Even more notably as secretary of energy, Perry managed to avoid the scandals and personal clashes that ensnared many other top administration officials — Rex Tillerson, Jim Mattis, John Kelly, Kirstjen Nielsen, Jeff Sessions, Scott Pruitt, David Shulkin, Reince Priebus, Sean Spicer and Nikki Haley. Some resigned on principle, others in disgrace, but few emerged unscathed.“Even as his longtime critic, I was willing to give Perry credit for avoiding the shoals and the rocks and the shipwrecks of the Trump administration,” Glenn Smith, a Democratic consultant, said when I called him this week


  • .Now, it turns out, Perry may not have navigated the choppy waters of Washington, D.C., as deftly as it seemed.Two of Perry’s longtime friends received a potentially lucrative contract from the Ukrainian government after he attended the inauguration of its newly elected president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in May. And Perry had recommended one of them, Michael Bleyzer, as an energy adviser during the course of his meeting with Zelenskiy.Said Smith about the deal: “As a Texan, I just wish our former governor hadn’t done that. It just looks icky. It’s kind of embarrassing.”It sure seems like a clear-cut case of cronyism if not pay-for play, offenses Perry has been accused of before — as well as other forms of corruption: In 2015, he was charged with abuse of official capacity and coercion of a public servant after seeking the resignation of then-Travis County District Attorney Rosemary Lehmberg. The charges were dismissed.More significantly now, Perry is engulfed in the growing controversy over Trump’s seeming efforts to pressure Zelenskiy to investigate Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, the matter that led Democratic leaders in the House of Representatives to open an impeachment inquiry.

  • Trump reportedly told Republican lawmakers it was Perry who asked him to call Zelenskiy. “I didn’t even want to make the call,” Trump said. “The only reason I made the call was because Rick asked me to. Something about an LNG (liquefied natural gas) plant.”Then last week, Bill Taylor, the acting U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, testified in a public hearing that Perry was one of several administration officials involved in a “highly irregular” channel of U.S. policymaking toward Ukraine.It has all left even those most familiar with Perry’s record unsure what to make of his role in the drama.Perry isn’t helping make matters any clearer. Though he has insisted he knew nothing about any effort on Trump’s part to investigate a political rival, he’s also declined to comply with a congressional subpoena. All people can do is speculate.David Dewhurst, the longtime lieutenant governor and an oil and gas executive by background, said he thinks Perry’s heart was in the right place.

  • “He wasn’t trying to put pressure on anyone,” Dewhurst said. He figures Perry was simply trying to help build a good relationship with the new president of Ukraine.That’s certainly possible. Thus far, there’s no evidence that Perry was directly involved with Trump’s effort to secure Ukraine’s help for his re-election campaign — or that he did anything illegal in recommending one of his buddies as a potential adviser to Zelenskiy.Texans could reasonably believe the former governor meant well. But we shouldn’t have to take things like this on faith. He has some explaining to do, and he should do it in public, at a congressional hearing.To Smith’s point, Perry’s dealings with Ukraine are a bit embarrassing to all of us.As Texans, we’re used to cozy relationships between elected officials and industry leaders. We’ve developed a different barometer for corruption than many of our fellow Americans, perhaps because the state’s weak central government creates a natural demand for supplemental services, provided by private sector interests who are always happy to offer their expertise.But it can look a bit different when such relationships and behind-the-scenes pressure blow up on a national stage, a cringe-worthy reminder that they shouldn’t constitute business as usual, that the fallout can be serious. From a distance, the picture becomes clearer.

  • As the scandal unfolds, Texans should reflect on whether the behavior we shrug over is really a good way to run a state..."
  •  

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  Trump sics DOJ on Supreme Court
Posted by: aqua - 11-24-2019, 05:58 PM - Forum: Politics - No Replies

Big Grin  Wow.  What other criminal stuff does the Orange Menace to the Country have to try and hide ?




 

Terrified that His Taxes Will Become Public, Trump Sics His DOJ on the Supreme Court

News Corpse

Saturday November 23, 2019


"Last week's impeachment hearings revealed overwhelming evidence of the criminal behavior of Donald Trump. The witnesses were largely from his own administration, including Dr. Fiona Hill who was a top aide to Trump's ultra-conservative National Security Advisor, John Bolton. And every one of them testified that Trump improperly threatened to withhold military funds from Ukraine unless they helped him smear a political rival. In fact, Trump himself admitted it.


However, in just the few hours since the hearings adjourned, there have been some startling stories of corruption and dirty dealing by Trump and his sycophantic defenders. The ranking Republican on the House Intelligence Committee, Devin Nunes, has been implicated in a scandal of his own wherein he was seeking foreign assistance to dig up dirt on Joe Biden. Which is precisely the crime that the Committee is investigating Trump for. As for Trump, he visited his Friends at Fox News to spread propaganda manufactured by Russia. But These aren't the only problems Trump faces.

The state of New York has been trying to get Trump's tax returns as evidence in a case probing alleged campaign finance violations. Trump, of course, has been refusing to cooperate, but having lost in the lower courts, Trump is taking his challenge to the Supreme Court. In advance of any decision, the Department of Justice is now weighing in with their own opinion. And naturally they are siding with Trump. This is just further proof that Attorney Genuflect Bill Barr is a toady for Trump who is breaching his oath to serve the American people.

There is no justification for the DOJ to interfere with this litigation. It is outside of the purview of the Department as it involves Trump personally and is not associated with his duties as president. What's more, the case that the DOJ is presenting to the Supreme Court is typically biased, shallow, and weak on legal rationale. According to their filing...

Quote:"The brief, filed by Solicitor General Noel Francisco, says allowing Manhattan prosecutor Cyrus Vance to obtain the tax returns would create a precedent that 'may subject the president to highly burdensome demands for information' and 'raises the risk that prosecutors could use subpoenas to harass the president as a result of opposition to his policies.'"
Literally none of that is is justification for the Justice Department to interfere with this case. The President is not immune to investigations by state prosecutors. And it isn't the DOJ's job to define what constitutes a "burden" to the President. Nor is the DOJ permitted to insert itself into what may or may not be a political affair. The President has his personal attorneys for those purposes. The brief went on to say that...
Quote:“'The United States has a substantial interest in protecting the office of the president and the powers and duties vested in that office,' the brief reportedly reads. 'The United States also has a substantial interest in protecting the autonomy of the federal government from potential interference by the states.'"
To the extent that the DOJ is tasked with "protecting the office of the president," it is limited to the his official duties, not his personal affairs. Especially those that took place prior to his election. However, the argument that the DOJ has an interest in protecting the President "from potential interference by the states," is downright ludicrous. It is, in effect, a claim to protect the President from the nation he is sworn to serve. If upheld it would set a precedent that allows any president to violate state laws with impunity. And along with the tax laws that are central to this case, that could include rape and murder.
Trump's stubborn refusal to release his taxes - as every other president in modern times has done - is a pretty good indication that there is something terribly wrong hidden in them. He isn't even pretending to be audited anymore. Now he claims that just asking to see his returns is an abuse of power. He's just sending his lackeys out to make absurd arguments in the hopes that he can keep his skeletons in the closet. And while the DOJ's case is so thin as to be laughable, it is not outside the realm of possibility that it will be received favorably by a Supreme Court that is stacked with right-wingers and Trump appointees. Time will tell if they honor the law and the Constitution more than their misplaced loyalty to a criminal president."
Quote:Your support would be appreciated by following me on
Facebook and Twitter.

Also, visit News Corpse on the web.

And check out my books on Amazon:
Fox Nation vs. Reality:
The Fox News Cult of Ignorance

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  Nunes subject to investigation
Posted by: aqua - 11-24-2019, 02:56 PM - Forum: Politics - Replies (8)

LOL.  You knew it had to happen.

Everyone around Trumpy-poo is corrupt.

Nunes likely to undergo House Ethics Committee investigation — but this time for real
 
KM Wehrstein
Sunday November 24, 2019 ·


Per Politico — House Armed Services Committee Chair Adam Smith (D-WA) told Joy Reid on MSNBC yesterday that it was “quite likely, without question,” that Devin Nunes (R-CA), top Republican on the House Intelligence Committee will undergo an ethics investigation.

"This is after one of Rudy Giuliani’s two indicted thug-buddies, Lev Parnas, told CNN that Nunes, who has been trying nonstop to disrupt the impeachment hearings with the GOP party-line conspiracy theory, is actually part of the real plot that the impeachment is all about and he is doing his best to cover up.  Seems Nunes met more than once with Victor Shokin, the crooked Ukrainian prosecutor Joe Biden and other Western leaders helped oust for covering up corruption, to get dirt on, hey, what a coincidence — Joe Biden.

This will be the second ethics investigation on Nunes, but the first real one, as his GOP cronies controlling the House Ethics Committee whitewashed his sharing classified info on the Russia investigation with the White House in 2017.  Due to the wisdom of American voters in the 2018 midterms, the Ethics Committee now has some ethics.  With any luck this investigation will lead to indictment, resignation and jail time for the cow-suing toady and traitor.

Giuliani, naturally, had something to say.  “"Poor Lev. I don't know what he's doing to himself.  I feel sorry for him."
Let me explain what he’s doing, Rudy, since you can’t face it: flipping on his mob boss to get a lighter sentence.  Same thing you’re going to do to your mob boss when it’s your turn."

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  CLIMATE ALARMISM
Posted by: andrew_o - 11-24-2019, 12:23 AM - Forum: Politics - No Replies



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  Liarwatha's kid went to private school
Posted by: andrew_o - 11-23-2019, 11:44 PM - Forum: Politics - No Replies

Elizabeth Warren Accused of Lying to School Choice Activist: ‘No, My Children Went to Public Schools’


Quote:Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is facing backlash for telling a school choice supporter that her children went to public schools, despite the fact that her son attended a private school, the Washington Free Beacon reported.


Warren released her education plan in October, which called to eliminate school vouchers, tuition tax credits, and federally funded expansions of charter schools, as Breitbart News reported.

“We should stop the diversion of public dollars from traditional public schools through vouchers or tuition tax credits – which are vouchers by another name,” Warren wrote.
“We should fight back against the privatization, corporatization, and profiteering in our nation’s schools,” she continued.


A school choice activist confronted Warren at a campaign event in Atlanta, Georgia, on Thursday, the same activist who reportedly led the protest against the presidential candidate during her speech at Clark-Atlanta University the same day.
“We are going to have the same choice that you had for your kids because I read that your children went to private schools,” the activist, Sarah Carpenter told Warren.
“My children went to public schools,” Warren told her. [video is on twitter]

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