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Posted by: iamhe - 34 minutes ago - Forum: Misc - No Replies

So all we see are these supposed "over run" hospitals empty,across the country, we see covid hot pockets in NY and LA.

All a buncha bs...the reasons you see what you do in Italy, spain and parts of New York and La is because it is being intentionally spread there by agents of evil.

covid 119 is about money and changing it to what they want

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  How to make muesli?
Posted by: silverfish - 1 hour ago - Forum: Misc - Replies (2)

I have always bought muesli ready made, for some reason it seems to taste completely different, and for the ingredients isn't much more expensive.  Now it is unobtainable and I am trying to make my own with oats, nuts, and dried fruit.  It somehow doesn't taste right, the oats don't seem to be the same.  I bought rolled oats which are sold for making porridge, but they don't seem to have much substance.  The packet says they are wholemeal oats.  

Does muesli need to be cooked or toasted in any way to combine the ingredients?  What am I doing wrong?  This is staple diet.

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  Virus experiment under way
Posted by: aqua - 5 hours ago - Forum: Misc - No Replies

There is an interesting experiment afoot.

Red States and Blue States are going in different directions on "social distancing".

Events are also moving fast.  Since the map was created, I believe Maryland has gone to lockdowns.


Brace Yourselves: The US Is Setting Up a Ghastly “Natural Experiment”
Posted on March 31, 2020 by Yves Smith
"Yves here. Since this post launched, Virginia had declared a state-wide lockdown till June 10 (although it could be lifted earlier). By contrast, in Alabama, the governor  last Friday only closed all non-essential businesses through April 17.  But the key bit is look how quickly things appear set to get ugly in the US.

[b]By NewDealDemocrat. Originally published at Angry Bear[/b]

When I began my “Coronavirus Dashboard,” I was hopeful that it would document the slow progress towards turning a bad situation around, and the ultimate tamping down of the pandemic. Surely increasingly intense and overwhelming public pressure would force a critical mass of government officials to do what was necessary?

Now I am not so sure. The number of cases continue to climb at a double-digit exponential rate, if a less aggressive one than earlier in March.......... The march to universal Statewide lockdowns has almost screeched to a halt. Most importantly, GOP governors in the Confederacy and in the High Plains, plus Arizona, have completely put the brakes on any statewide “stay in place” orders.

And even in those States which have taken relatively aggressive efforts at containment, the level of testing, let alone isolation and quarantine of identified cases, is running far below what is necessary. In fact it looks like it is falling further and further behind.

In short, I suspect that my dashboard is instead going to document the catastrophe of a deadly pandemic allowed to get completely out of control.

Earlier this month I documented, almost daily, how the pandemic was spreading at an average 34.6% daily. Last Monday, I projected that rate forward another 15 days, meaning that by April 5 there would be 2,500,000 cases.

Here’s what the actual growth looks like so far compared with that projection:
Date. Projection Actual
Mar 22: 36,001 35,224
Mar 23: 48,458. 46,450
Mar 24: 65,224. 55,225
Mar 25: 87,792. 69,197
Mar 26: 118,168. 86,012
Mar 27: 159,054. 104,837
Mar 28: 214,087. 124,686

The actual rate of increase is approximately 24% for each of the last 7 days. On a “less worse” note, the rate is only 22% over the last 5 days. Even more alarming, here are the dates in which the number of cases expanded by 10:
Mar 2 100
Mar 10 1,000
Mar 19 10,000
Mar 28 100,000
Every 8 or 9 days, the number of infections have risen 10-fold. Let’s project that forward:
Apr 6 1 million
Apr 15 10 million
Apr 22 100 million

At this rate, by the end of April, every man, woman, and child in the US would be infected. That won’t happen, if for no other reason than the virus will spread less efficiently once it mainly “spreads” to people who have already recovered and so will have developed antibody immunity to it.

And here is a graph from Kevin Drum, showing that at the rate deaths have been growing in March, by April 26 there will have been *1 million* US deaths from coronavirus:

[Image: 00-Coronavirus-Death-Toll.jpg]
To be blunt: so far “social distancing” has only slowed down the exponential rate of increase. While the effects of State and region-wide lockdowns aren’t yet apparent, the fact that testing isn’t keeping up means that we are far, far away from South Korea style monitoring. Another two or three weeks of this kind of exponential growth and the pandemic will simply be pervasive and out of control. Against that the only hope is that the advent of warmer weather in April might naturally damp down the spread, but don’t hold your breath for that.
Against that background, let me get to the second part of my essay: a ghastly “natural experiment” is being set up in three regions of the US.
Here is The NY Times’s most recent map, from Friday March 27, of States that are under total lockdowns plus States where there are only some municipal or regional lockdowns:
[Image: 00-Corona-Virus-Lockdowns.jpg]
Since that time, Alaska, Kansas, and Rhode Island have also gone to statewide lockdown. Both Pennsylvania and Utah are under close to statewide lockdowns.

The US has 3 regions of coronavirus response:

1. Every State in the Mountain and Pacific West, plus Alaska and Hawaii, is under statewide or nearly statewide lockdown, with the exception of Wyoming and Arizona.

2. Every State in the old Union, except for Iowa, Maine, and Maryland, plus North Carolina, is under statewide lockdowns (and really wtf is up with Governor Northam of Virginia, who is a physician?!?)

3. No State in the old Confederacy run by a GOP governor, with the exception of Louisiana, or in the Great Plains west of the Mississippi, except for Kansas, is under a lockdown.

The “natural experiment” that is going to take place over the next few weeks is the rate of spread in the first two regions vs. the third region.

Most likely, over the next two weeks the rate of increase in – and possibly the actual number of – infections in the locked down regions will decrease, while number of infections in the region not locked down will likely continue to grow at an exponential rate, albeit perhaps at a slower one.

Brace yourselves. What has happened in March with regard to the effects of this pandemic is akin to only the first inning of a baseball game. This is almost certainly going to get a lot worse."

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  Is the Covid19 test specific?
Posted by: silverfish - 7 hours ago - Forum: Misc - Replies (2)

David Icke's latest video was claiming that the Covid19 test can only test if people have ever had any generic coronavirus, which as these are very common will be everyone.  That just didn't sound right, as the governments have done a lot of tests, and the vast majority are negative.

Is the test specific for Covid19 or can it only test for any coronavirus?

This article explains a bit about the coronavirus test, but I am still totally confused by it https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/03...-antibody/

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  China death toll - who to believe?
Posted by: andrew_o - Today, 04:38 AM - Forum: Misc - Replies (2)


Reports: Virus Death Toll in Wuhan over 10x China’s Official Number

Multiple reports analyzing the number of urns carrying remains of the dead in Wuhan, the Chinese city where the current coronavirus pandemic originated, distributed this weekend suggests that the Communist Party may be downplaying the true number of dead by at least an order of magnitude.

China had kept most of Wuhan quarantined for months, welding families shut into their homes and apartments to keep them from contaminating more people. While medical experts have traced the first case of Chinese coronavirus back to Wuhan in November 2019, dictator Xi Jinping did not visit the city of 11 million people until the week of March 10, shortly before the Chinese Communist Party began allowing businesses to reopen and claiming that doctors were not diagnosing any more coronavirus cases in the city. With the city recent reopened, the government finally began allowing families to go to funeral homes and pick up the ashes of their relatives who died of coronavirus infection last week.

Citing funeral home directors and eyewitnesses, multiple reports suggest that the number of urns collected was far larger than that possible if Beijing had accurately reported the number of cases. The Epoch Times, an anti-communist newspaper that has documented skepticism of official government figures from within Wuhan since the onset of the pandemic, estimated over 32,000 deaths attributable to Chinese coronavirus in Wuhan in a report Sunday. The newspaper noted that the urns collected this weekend had amassed between January 23, when the lockdown began, to March 23, when families were first allowed to begin retrieving them.

Citing sources in various Wuhan funeral homes and reports from other outlets such as the independent Chinese media outlet Caixin, the Epoch Times concluded that Wuhan’s seven funeral homes possessed 40,000 urns, each urn containing the remains of one person, during the lockdown, suggesting that 40,000 people died in the city during that time. Discounting the average number of deaths a day in Wuhan in 2018, the latest year for which public statistics are available, the newspaper concluded that at least 32,140 people have died of Chinese coronavirus in Wuhan.
These numbers echoed the warning of funeral directors speaking to the Epoch Times in February, concerned that they did not have the capacity to handle the sheer number of bodies hospitals were sending them. A report in the publication that month found that each Wuhan crematorium was handling as much as five times the normal intake of bodies per day.
Radio Free Asia (RFA), an American human rights publication, published an even larger number on Thursday:

Quote:Some social media posts have estimated that all seven funeral homes in Wuhan are handing out 3,500 urns every day in total.
Funeral homes have informed families that they will try to complete cremations before the traditional grave-tending festival of Qing Ming on April 5, which would indicate a 12-day process beginning on March 23.

Such an estimate would mean that 42,000 urns would be given out during that time.
Another popular estimate is based on the cremation capacity of the funeral homes, which run a total of 84 furnaces with a capacity over 24 hours of 1,560 urns city-wide, assuming that one cremation takes one hour.

This calculation results in an estimated 46,800 deaths
China has documented 82,198 cases nationwide, 67,801 cases in Hubei province generally. China claims 3,308 people have died since the outbreak began in Wuhan, the overwhelming majority – 3,186 people – in Hubei province.
The official global death toll currently stands at 35,019, or about 11,000 fewer people than RFA’s estimate of the number of dead in one Chinese city alone. Beijing claims to have lost fewer people than Spain or Italy.

The current global number of people confirmed to be infected by the Chinese coronavirus – not counting the “mild” cases in Wuhan, of course – stands at 737,929 worldwide.

Both RFA and the Epoch Times cited locals in Wuhan who said that many of the dead never made it to a hospital. The Chinese government openly admitted that it had stopped counting “mild” cases of Chinese coronavirus in its official tallies in February, potentially leaving tens of thousands of people with confirmed coronavirus cases out of the numbers that global public health authorities are using to study just how contagious and deadly the virus us. Beijing also never defined what “mild” means, potentially leaving that interpretation up to Communist Party politicians rather than healthcare professionals.

Funeral home directors also revealed, anonymously, that the number of death certificates telling them the bodies they received were of people who died of “pneumonia” – a common complication in Chinese coronavirus victims, though not one unique to the virus – had begun skyrocketing, making them suspect that these bodies were incorrectly marked to ensure they did not count towards Beijing’s coronavirus death toll.
The Communist Party is working to mitigate embarrassment in the event of an explosion of new cases in Wuhan as businesses and public transport reopens by claiming that there is potential for a “second wave” of infections triggered by foreigners coming to China from countries with a high number of Chinese coronavirus cases. Locals have insisted for weeks, however, that the first wave never abated. The Epoch Times published video Sunday of Wuhan residents collapsing on the group, clearly infirm, suggesting these individuals are suffering from an infection and not receiving care. Their presence in public exposes others to infection, as scientists believe water droplets in the air breathed out by infected people can spread to others near them.

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  Is Suing Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment
Posted by: DaveGillie - Today, 02:35 AM - Forum: Misc - Replies (2)

This Business Is Suing the Government Over a Coronavirus Closure Order
"These uncompensated seizures violate the Takings Clause of the Fifth Amendment."



The "Takings Clause", the last clause of the Fifth Amendment, limits the power of eminent domain by requiring "just compensation" be paid if private property is taken for public use.

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  Cruise to nowhere
Posted by: aqua - Yesterday, 06:56 PM - Forum: Misc - No Replies


As cruise ship carrying sick and dead passengers moves toward Florida, governor says state can't take them
By Lisa J. Huriash, Sun Sentinel

"FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — A Holland America cruise ship, carrying four bodies and scores of patients with coronavirus-like symptoms, has been given permission to cross the Panama Canal, allowing them to continue their journey toward Florida, the cruise line’s president said Sunday.

The Zandaam and Rotterdam, where some passengers were transferred, may be heading to Fort Lauderdale or Miami.

But Gov. Ron DeSantis appeared on Fox News on Monday morning — and he wasn’t happy.
“We cannot afford to have people who are not even Floridians dumped into South Florida using up those valuable resources,” he said, adding he is in touch with the White House over the fate of these ships. “We view this as a big, big problem and we don’t want to see people dumped in southern Florida right now.”

Both ships had crossed the canal by Monday morning.

“We recently received confirmation from the Panamanian government that both ships have been allowed access to Panama Canal to make our way east toward Florida,” Holland America president Orlando Ashford said in a video shown to passengers and crew on Sunday night.

Valerie Myntti and her husband remained locked in their rooms Sunday, unable to leave the Zandaam because her husband reported that he had a cough.

“This is a humanitarian disaster and we need immediate attention,” said Mynitti, a Minnesota resident who owns a house in Boca Raton. “Who are we (America) in times of an incredible crisis if we don’t reach out in incredible generosity? In a crisis you can see how the men are divided from the boys.”

The wait staff is from the Philippines, Thailand and Indonesia, many of whom are sick and need medical help, she said.

“This was a grand adventure that turned deeply tragic,” she said.

Ellen Kennedy, spokeswoman for Port Everglades, said late Sunday afternoon no official decision had been made about where the ships would go.

Although initially stating that anyone with coronavirus would not be allowed passage through the canal, the Panama Canal Authority seemed to reverse course in a statement, saying late Saturday it “supports all efforts being made to ensure an expedited return home for cruise passengers and crew on Holland America’s Zaandam.”

The Zaandam was anchored outside Panama Canal waters, where healthy passengers were being transferred Sunday to Holland America’s Rotterdam.

Myntti said the captain told passengers both ships are expected to enter into the canal Sunday night. The captain did not tell them where the final destination would be, although her family has been in touch with a congresswoman in Minnesota who said it will likely dock in Miami.

“Conditions are that all curtains and windows are covered and no one allowed on verandas,” said Rotterdam passenger Cliff Kolber. “We do not know final destination.”

The spokesman for the cruise line would not give an updated figure for the sick or give more information about the one American who is among the dead......".

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  Oil Storage Space Full
Posted by: aqua - Yesterday, 05:51 PM - Forum: Markets, Money & Investing - Replies (4)

Smile  Big oil glut is causing problems.


The Unthinkable Is Happening: Oil Storage Space Is About To Run Out
by Tyler Durden
Mon, 03/30/2020

"In the past three weeks, oil plunged and has continued to plunge even more in the aftermath of the oil price war declared between Saudi Arabia and Russia, and where US shale (and its junk bonds) has been caught in the crossfire. However, as we reported last week, we may get to the absurd point when the price of a barrel of oil not only hits $0 but goes negative.

The reason: according to Mizuho’s Paul Sankey, at a whopping 15MM b/d in oversupply, crude prices could go negative as Saudi and Russian barrels enter the market. According to Sankey, much of the US 4MM bpd in crude exports will be curtailed as prices fall and tanker rates soar. And with US storage roughly 50% full, and able to take another 135MM bbl more, assuming a build rate of 2MM b/d, the US can add 14MM bbl/week for 10 weeks until full.

As a result, there is a now race between filling storage and negative pricing "unless U.S. decline rates can outpace inventory builds, which we very much doubt." Said otherwise, absent dramatic changes, in roughly 3 months, energy merchants will be paying you if you generously take a couple million barrels of crude off their hands.

It went from bad to an outright disaster earlier this week when Goldman, Vitol, and the IEA all raised their estimate for daily oil oversupply to an unthinkable 20 million barrels per day, as a result of the collapse in oil demand as the global economy grinds to a halt coupled with Saudi Arabia's determination to put all of its higher-cost OPEC peers out of business.

This means that for the oil market to rebalance, both Saudi Arabia and Russia would have to halt all output. Needless to say that is not happening, in fact Saudi Arabia is now pumping between 2 and 3 million barrels more than it did last month, which is why the negative oil price scenario envisioned by Sankey is looking more real by the day.

So real, in fact, that the US energy industry is starting to contemplate the all too real possibility of running out of storage and as Bloomberg reports American pipeline operators have begun asking oil producers to voluntarily ratchet back their output in the clearest sign yet that a growing glut of crude is overwhelming storage capacity.

As Bloomberg details, Plains All American Pipeline, one of the biggest shippers of crude in the U.S., sent a letter this week asking its suppliers to scale back production. The notice came from the company’s marketing unit that buys and sells oil to customers. At the same time, a Texas oil regulator said Saturday that drillers were getting similar notices from pipeline operators.

“We are sending this proactive request to our suppliers to ask that you take steps to reduce oil production in response to the pandemic,” Plains said in the letter obtained by Bloomberg. Good luck with that: in an industry geared to always producing, that's similar to asking the Nile to reverse course.

The company sent a separate letter requiring customers to prove they have a buyer or place to offload the crude they’re shipping, according to people familiar with the matter. Enterprise Products Partners LP put out a similar call, one person said. The firm didn’t immediately have comment. The idea is to prevent anyone from parking oil in pipelines, an unprecedented step which suggests pipeline are now convinced US commercial storage will soon be full, at which point oil producers will have no choice but to pay customers to take the oil or wreck unprecedented havoc on the US oil infrastructure.

If there is any confusion, Bloomberg explains the situation succinctly: "the messages signal the oil market is fast approaching the moment traders have been warning about - when crude supplies overflow storage tanks and pipelines as the coronavirus pandemic drags down oil demand by the most in history."

* * *
Also on Saturday, Ryan Sitton, a member of the Texas Railroad Commission that regulates the state’s oil industry, said he’d heard that “some Texas producers are starting to get letters from shippers (pipelines) asking for oil production cuts because they are out of storage.”

There were already signs that North America’s storage system was nearing its limit. On Friday, prices for physical delivery of several key crude grades in North America plunged to the lowest levels in decades. West Texas Intermediate crude in the heart of the Permian shale region plunged to $13.01 a barrel, the lowest since 1999. Meanwhile, West Canada oil is just $5 away from turning negative......"

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  Just for Andrew
Posted by: cbeatty - Yesterday, 04:25 PM - Forum: Politics - Replies (1)

I thought Andrew would like this.

nick kelly 
Mar 30, 2020 at 9:41 am
‘The US is basically a “500lbs pound gorilla” company who has dominated the market’
The explanation for the rise of the US to commercial preeminence shortly after the Industrial Revolution is two fold: WWI and WWII. 
WWI left all participants except the US either bankrupt or heavily indebted to the US. But only France and Belgium were physically devastated. 
WWII left the US as the only commercial manufacturer left standing, with Germany and Japan flattened and broke while Britain and France were merely broke and partially flattened.
US largess via the Marshall Plan did not include Britain. Ships were actually turned around in mid-ocean as the ink dried on the surrender. Bread had not been rationed during the war, but now had to be. Rationing did not end until 1954. The grudging US War Loan of 300 million was paid with interest. 
The puzzling ‘X factor’ that has many Americans why the good ole 50’s can’t return is largely the recovery of those basket cases: Germany and Japan. Not that it was easy. Sochiro Honda began by motorizing bicycles with surplus engines from generators. Workers at VW’s Wolfsburg plant had to wade around a flooded floor and were paid in groceries. 
But they’re back and they’re not going away.
The US WWII victory bonus has been used up and some would say partly wasted.

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  Solution? EVERYONE wears a mask?
Posted by: doubletroublejim - Yesterday, 12:23 PM - Forum: Misc - Replies (11)

Why not have everyone wear a mask and have their hands sanitized before going into a store, office building, anywhere?  Will keep virus air droplets from escaping and spreading.  We could go about our business while stopping the spread. Seems to me it would  to be a better policy than shutting everything down.

The masks won't keep people from getting the virus, but would keep people from spreading the virus.

Just a thought.....

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