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With the back ground narrative now being "IMPEACH TRUMP" aka MUH-PEACHMENT this looks like a head wind for bullish asset markets (aka stocks) as opposed to BEARISH/hedge asset markets like GOLD.

Gold sold off early today, and bounced back a bit.  I think gold ramps back up, and attacks $1,600ish.  Gold might still be in a BEAR MARKET CORRECTION since 2011 but even then, I think gold bounces back a bit as weak shorts cover and gold bugs dip back in again.  Although maybe a sucker high B top to new nominal highs just north of $2,000ish might be a year or two or 3 off....

Bitcoin: ok, wow, almost typed BitCON -- Freudian slip????  Might not be a hedge market, maybe more of an ANTI-CASH BULLISH bet (like stocks).  Hit 9,000 then backed off.  Could be a correction still.... Even IF that 3,000 low from a year or so ago won't get breached.  So... maybe  a small position in GBTC (Bitcoin tracking trust) and a TINY position in crypto stock bets but that might be about it -- although it looks like one of THE markets to keep an eye on.

Stocks have had a sluggish day so far.  Returns could be sideways at best thru the spring/summer.  

A noticeable reversal here could lead to an unraveling stock market fairly quickly.  Either way, I think the DJIA retests 24,000ish before it makes its ultimate run up to 40,000ish (or even higher).

Cash is probably king as caution reigns.

DJIA wave count that I prefer might be getting away from me soon: A up is over with A comprising a, a-b-c for b then, c up, with a of B down in the books, and a-b-c up for b up of b down in the books....  So, then you get c of B down to that 24,000ish level.  Before C up for the bigger B of a corrective triangle that I think began in January/February 2018.  

Too many over-lapping waves (in my opinion) over the past couple of years to be a REAL breakout.  

Breadth doesn't look so hot.  And, can BEYOND BURGERS or whatever the fuck REALLY lead a healthy, SUSTAINED break-out rally?  

Here's a pic of the DJIA in the last 4 years.  Looks like a hard count to figure out....  BREAKOUT up is possible but I like the triangle/wedge pattern count the most.  Basically a mini-Jaws of Death aka a mid-cycle technical correction inside a MEGA BULL MARKET that ENDS no later than 2029-2033.

[Image: big.chart?nosettings=1&symb=djia&uf=0&ty...mocktick=1]

Even if this count doesn't hold up, the closer ALTERNATIVE would take the DJIA to 20,000 to 21,000ish sooner rather than later (year or so after the election for DA LOW).

And, the way gold is positioned, I think gold is ready for a snap-back, dead cat, alternate count REBOUND RALLY that is IMMINENT.

THIS situation would be BEARISH for BULLISH BETS (namely stocks, and, to a lesser extent, Bitcoin).


... one more thing...

I looked at coinflation.com the other day.  It SEEMS to me that it LOOKS LIKE they quit making nickels in 2014.  OR that the website has an error OR the nickels have a new composite.

If so....



"It's not a bank run -- it's a jail break".

da bear

Call your local ticket broker about Memphis Wrestling Federation season tickets!

P.S.  I think I like DA GOLD COUNT/scenario more than the others, but I will keep an eye on both.  A CONFIRMATION of a stock market reversal will lead to a WASH OUT going into the spring.  From there, probably a snap-back short covering rally for a Bigger B top around January 2021.
So which Waffle House is the OP sleeping behind this Winter?
(01-21-2020, 08:18 PM)oly2059 Wrote: [ -> ]So which Waffle House is the OP sleeping behind this Winter?

I hear there is gonna be a new one in Oxford, MS. Close enough to the Tri Delt house for ME.

Gonna pull up stakes in May and see if I can get to the one on the Florida/Alabama border during Hangout Fest.  A great place to be when everything goes tits up!!!!

da bear
Potential for some really funky wave counts here.

The pattern should end once a Jaws of Death pattern is completed.

Looks like Wave A down was a 3 wave a-b-c move that ended in very late 2018.

B up could be over OR only a of B up.  If so... b down of B up could have a 3 wave a-b-c move.  A low sometime this summer could put in a c of b low.  THEN the last run-up of a bigger B by early 2021.  OR... the 2021 Bigger B top gets put off until late summer 2021 then we get a CLASSIC October crash.  That would then be 34 years since the 1987 crash.

But, check the DJIA and the S&P 500 and the NYSE and the Nasdaq to clarify any reading on the overall "stock market".

The NYSE might show the clearest patterns overall.

Although we can probably find out soon, and until then you wanna over-weight cash and gold.

For Bitcoin, I wanna see it test 8,000 to 8,500 before maybe another solid push past 9,000.  Although Bitcoin could be in its OWN triangle pattern.  

da bear
The different stock averages are showing different things, so maybe they aren't all lined up.

Could have a bad February though with a newer high in March.  Although maybe you can't get back in again until the summer.  

From there, I think we get another rally with a B peak sometime in 2021 -- but as far out as September/October 2021.

da bear
New Book: "How Having No Money to Invest Makes Investment Choices Incredibly Easy" as told by Da Bear to B.K. Loeser (a Professional Ghost Writer).
(01-24-2020, 01:02 AM)oly2059 Wrote: [ -> ]New Book: "How Having No Money to Invest Makes Investment Choices Incredibly Easy" as told by Da Bear to B.K. Loeser (a Professional Ghost Writer).

I can probably get you booked for the Memphis Wrestling Fest on May 23rd.

DA HANGOUT FEST in Gulf Shores is sold out -- don't ya know!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

da bear

When the going gets odd, the odds get bettter!
Stocks correcting again.

Look for slight new lows in this down move.  Then... probably a rally for a week or two, BUT look for a daily low below yesterday's lows.

Looks to be an a-b-c correction which might not end until lat spring/early summer.

Metals: hedge BOTH stocks AND Cash (maybe Bitcoin too).

Gold though needs to make new new highs (higher than it has been over the past month or so) OR look for another sell-off.

Why not... CASH???

da bear
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